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Related papers: Interval-censored Hawkes processes

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We give a general Gaussian bound for the first chaos (or innovation) of point processes with stochastic intensity constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply the general result to nonlinear Hawkes processes, providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Giovanni Luca Torrisi

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

We introduce a hull operator on Poisson point processes, the easiest example being the convex hull of the support of a point process in Euclidean space. Assuming that the intensity measure of the process is known on the set generated by the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-02 Günter Last , Ilya Molchanov

Critically ill patients in regular wards are vulnerable to unanticipated adverse events which require prompt transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). To allow for accurate prognosis of deteriorating patients, we develop a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Ahmed M. Alaa , Scott Hu , Mihaela van der Schaar

The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-30 Masatoshi Goda

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

Aggressive behavior in autistic inpatient youth often arises in temporally clustered bursts complicating efforts to distinguish external triggers from internal escalation. The sample population branching factor-the expected number of new…

In this work, we introduce a new methodology for inferring the interaction structure of discrete valued time series which are Poisson distributed. While most related methods are premised on continuous state stochastic processes, in fact,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-12 Jeremie Fish , Jie Sun , Erik Bollt

A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Leigh Shlomovich , Edward Cohen , Niall Adams , Lekha Patel

Prediction of events such as part replacement and failure events plays a critical role in reliability engineering. Event stream data are commonly observed in manufacturing and teleservice systems. Designing predictive models for individual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Salman Jahani , Shiyu Zhou , Dharmaraj Veeramani , Jeff Schmidt

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

Censored quantile regression has emerged as a prominent alternative to classical Cox's proportional hazards model or accelerated failure time model in both theoretical and applied statistics. While quantile regression has been extensively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-27 Taehwa Choi , Seohyeon Park , Hunyong Cho , Sangbum Choi

The proportional hazards (PH) model is arguably one of the most popular models used to analyze time to event data arising from clinical trials and longitudinal studies, among many others. In many such studies, the event time of interest is…

Inference and testing in general point process models such as the Hawkes model is predominantly based on asymptotic approximations for likelihood-based estimators and tests. As an alternative, and to improve finite sample performance, this…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-22 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Ye Lu , Anders Rahbek , Jacob Stærk-Østergaard

We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Zihan Xu