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Related papers: A Multiscale Model for El Ni\~no Complexity

200 papers

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-24 Guanghao Ran , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

Echo State Network (ESN) presents a distinguished kind of recurrent neural networks. It is built upon a sparse, random and large hidden infrastructure called reservoir. ESNs have succeeded in dealing with several non-linear problems such as…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Naima Chouikhi , Boudour Ammar , Adel M. Alimi

Scientific research often seeks to understand the causal structure underlying high-level variables in a system. For example, climate scientists study how phenomena, such as El Ni\~no, affect other climate processes at remote locations…

We analyze solutions to the stochastic skeleton model, a minimal nonlinear oscillator model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This model has been recognized for its ability to reproduce several large-scale features of the MJO. In…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-15 Noémie Ehstand , Reik V. Donner , Cristóbal López , Marcelo Barreiro , Emilio Hernández-García

Prediction based on Irregularly Sampled Time Series (ISTS) is of wide concern in the real-world applications. For more accurate prediction, the methods had better grasp more data characteristics. Different from ordinary time series, ISTS is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Chenxi Sun , Shenda Hong , Moxian Song , Yanxiu Zhou , Yongyue Sun , Derun Cai , Hongyan Li

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Theodoros Economou , David B. Stephenson , Christopher A. T. Ferro

Arnold's standard circle maps are widely used to study the quasi-periodic route to chaos and other phenomena associated with nonlinear dynamics in the presence of two rationally unrelated periodicities. In particular, the El Nino-Southern…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-01-27 L. Marangio , J. Sedro , S. Galatolo , A. Di Garbo , M. Ghil

Interannual variability in the Southern Ocean is investigated via nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), an objective eigendecomposition technique for nonlinear dynamical systems that can simultaneously recover multiple timescales…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-05-16 Xinyang Wang , Dimitrios Giannakis , Joanna Slawinska

Understanding current global climate requires an understanding of trends both in Earth's atmospheric temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a characteristic large-scale distribution of warm water in the tropical Pacific…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-02-27 L. M. W. Leggett , D. A. Ball

Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-17 Andrew Dowdy , Andrew Brown , Todd Lane , Mateusz Taszarek

In recent years, the application of machine learning approaches to time-series forecasting of climate dynamical phenomena has become increasingly active. It is known that applying a band-pass filter to a time-series data is a key to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-05-26 Takuya Jinno , Takahito Mitsui , Kengo Nakai , Yoshitaka Saiki , Tsuyoshi Yoneda

Global weather patterns and regimes are heavily influenced by the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-13 Kyle J. C. Hall , Maria J. Molina , Emily F. Wisinski , Gerald A. Meehl , Antonietta Capotondi

Recent $daily$ data of the Southern Oscillation Index have been analyzed. The power spectrum indicates major intrinsic geophysical short periods. We find interesting ``high frequency'' oscillations at 24, 27, 37, 76, 100 and 365 days. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-05-23 Filippo Petroni , Marcel Ausloos

This study examines the evolution of extreme Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their impacts on South America during the austral summer. Furthermore, the study explores how the different ENSO phases modulate extreme MJO events, and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-29 Mónica Minjares , Álvaro Corral , Marcelo Barreiro

In recent years, extreme weather events have surged, highlighting the urgent need for action on the climate emergency. The year 2023 saw record-breaking global temperatures, unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, devastating floods in Asia, and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-11 Chae-Hyun Yoon , Jubin Park , Myung-Ki Cheoun

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-04-15 Jai Sukhatme , V. Venugopal

This study introduces the second version of the Integrated Climate Model (ICM). ICM is developed by the Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics to improve the short-term climate prediction of the East…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-11 Ping Huang , Lei Wang , Pengfei Wang , Zhihua Zhang , Gang Huang

We explore the anomalous behavior of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind which it exhibited, since February 2016. In more detail, QBO interrupted its regular pattern and the eastward stratospheric winds…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-21 Costas A. Varotsos , Nikos V. Sarlis , Maria Efstathiou

This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-13 Thomas Xiao

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have long been known to have a major impact on the development of El Ni\~no events. In particular, they amplify these events, with stronger events associated with a higher number of WWBs. We further find…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-30 Georg A. Gottwald , Eli Tziperman , Alexey Fedorov