Related papers: A Multiscale Model for El Ni\~no Complexity
The predictability of extreme winter regimes in the regions of Northern Eurasia depending on El Ni\~no phenomena is assessed using data from long-term meteorological observations. The frequency of extremely warm and extremely cold winters…
The coupled atmosphere-ocean variability of the Indo-Pacific on interannual to multidecadal timescales is investigated in a millennial control run of CCSM4 and in observations using a family of modes recovered in Part~I of this work from…
Oceanic atmospheric oscillations and climate variability are tightly linked and both exhibit broad band spectral content that ranges, with roughly equal strength, from annual to centennial periodicity. The explanation for variability based…
Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
In many scientific disciplines, coarse-grained causal models are used to explain and predict the dynamics of more fine-grained systems. Naturally, such models require appropriate macrovariables. Automated procedures to detect suitable…
El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the significant climate phenomena, which appears periodically in the tropic Pacific. The intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model is the first and classical one designed…
Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…
Although anomalous episodical warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Ni\~no by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about six months…
El Ni\~no exhibits distinct Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types which are commonly, but not always consistently, distinguished from each other by different signatures in equatorial climate variability. Here, we propose an…
The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial…
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…
Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression…
Extreme El Ni\~no events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them better. However, extreme El Ni\~no events are rare, and…
Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the…
Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal…
Severe thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they…
Frequency of warm and cold winters in the North Eurasian regions is analyzed from long-term data, depending on El Nino phenomena of different types. Frequencies of extremely warm and extremely cold winters for North Eurasian regions in…