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We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Laura B. Balzer , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

Sexual contacts are the main spreading route of HIV. This puts sex workers at higher risk of infection even in populations where HIV prevalence is moderate or low. Alongside condom use, Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective tool…

The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-09-30 Can Liu , Jia-Rong Xie , Han-Shuang Chen , Hai-Feng Zhang , Ming Tang

Understanding the prevalence of key demographic and health indicators in small geographic areas and domains is of global interest, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where vital registration data is sparse and household…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-24 Qianyu Dong , Yunhan Wu , Zehang Richard Li , Jon Wakefield

HIV is a deadly virus transmitted either through having of unprotected sex, mother to child transmission, sharing of unsterilized objects that is capable of making cut or wounds on the body, through blood or bodily fluid transmission. AIDS…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-09-19 M. O. Oladejo , Ali Onuche John

Labeling patients in electronic health records with respect to their statuses of having a disease or condition, i.e. case or control statuses, has increasingly relied on prediction models using high-dimensional variables derived from…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-14 Zijian Guo , Prabrisha Rakshit , Daniel S. Herman , Jinbo Chen

Logistic regression model is widely used in many studies to investigate the relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ and a set of potential predictors $\mathbf X$. The binary response may represent, for example, the occurrence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Aba Diop , El Hadji Deme , Aliou Diop

Membership Inference Attacks (MIA) aim to infer whether a target data record has been utilized for model training or not. Existing MIAs designed for large language models (LLMs) can be bifurcated into two types: reference-free and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Wenjie Fu , Huandong Wang , Chen Gao , Guanghua Liu , Yong Li , Tao Jiang

Following [Diggle 2011, Greenland 1995], we give a simple formula for the Bayesian posterior density of a prevalence parameter based on unreliable testing of a population. This problem is of particular importance when the false positive…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-14 Jonathan Baxter

Causal inference across multiple data sources offers a promising avenue to enhance the generalizability and replicability of scientific findings. However, data integration methods for time-to-event outcomes, common in biomedical research,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Yi Liu , Alexander W. Levis , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Peter B. Gilbert , Larry Han

Acute infectious diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Epidemic models are used to predict the spread of emergent pathogens and compare intervention strategies. Many of these models assume equal probability of contact…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-25 Gail E. Potter , Niel Hens

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Chikungunya is an emerging threat for health security all over the world which is spreading very fast. Researches for proper forecasting of the incidence rate of chikungunya has been going on in many places in which DARPA has done a very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Sayed Erfan Arefin , Tasnia Ashrafi Heya , Dr Moinul Zaber

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret

When highly active antiretroviral therapy is administered for long periods of time to HIV-1 infected patients, most patients achieve viral loads that are ``undetectable'' by standard assay (i.e., HIV-1 RNA $ < 50$ copies/ml). Yet despite…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-11-20 Laura E. Jones , Alan S. Perelson

Perinatal epidemiology often aims to evaluate exposures on infant outcomes. When the exposure affects the composition of people who give birth to live infants (e.g., by affecting fertility, behavior, or birth outcomes), this "live birth…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Shalika Gupta , Laura B. Balzer , Moses R. Kamya , Diane V. Havlir , Maya L. Petersen

Retrospective cohorts can be extracted from Electronic Health Records (EHR) to study prevalence, time until disease or event occurrence and cure proportion in real world scenarios. However, EHR are collected for patient care rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Matilda Pitt , Robert J. B. Goudie

In causal inference, measuring treatment heterogeneity is crucial as it provides scientific insights into how treatments influence outcomes and guides personalized decision-making. In this work, we study semi-supervised settings where a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Yilizhati Anniwaer , Yuqian Zhang

Surveys often ask respondents to report nonnegative counts, but respondents may misremember or round to a nearby multiple of 5 or 10. This phenomenon is called heaping, and the error inherent in heaped self-reported numbers can bias…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-15 Forrest W. Crawford , Robert E. Weiss , Marc A. Suchard

Understanding how vaccines perform against different pathogen genotypes is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies, particularly for highly genetically diverse pathogens like HIV. Sieve analysis is a statistical framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 James Peng , Michal Juraska , Pamela A. Shaw , Peter B. Gilbert