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Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…
We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…
The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…
The gap in statistics between multi-variate and time-series analysis can be bridged by using entropy statistics and recent developments in multi-dimensional scaling. For explaining the evolution of the sciences as non-linear dynamics, the…
Revealing the ongoing changes in ocean dynamics and their impact on marine ecosystems requires the joint analysis of multiple variables. Yet, global observational records only cover a few decades, posing a challenge in the separation of…
Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather…
The Late Pleistocene Antarctic temperature variation curve is decomposed into two components: cyclic and high frequency, stochastic. For each of these components, a mathematical model is developed which shows that the cyclic and stochastic…
Reconstructions of solar spectral irradiance - especially in the ultraviolet (UV) range - are crucial for understanding Earth's climate system. Although total solar irradiance (TSI) has been thoroughly investigated, the spectral composition…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Rotation in planetary atmospheres plays an important role in regulating atmospheric and oceanic heat flow, cloud formation and precipitation. Using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) three dimension General Circulation Model…
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…
Venus and Earth are similar in bulk properties yet followed dramatically different climatic trajectories. Reconstructing Venus's climate evolution requires understanding how rotation, obliquity, eccentricity, and solar luminosity shaped…
The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the…
Since the 1920s, when the three oscillations ENSO, NAO and NPO were found and defined, the theory of ocean-atmosphere coupling is particularly important in explaining the phenomena of atmospheric physics, then defined more than ten climate…
These notes offer a unified introduction to spectral methods for the study of complex systems. They are intended as an operative manual rather than a theorem-proof textbook: the emphasis is on tools, identities, and perspectives that can be…
The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…