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A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
Context: Financial system stability is determined by the condition of the banking system. A bank failure can destroy the stability of the financial system, as banks are subject to systemic risk, affecting not only individual banks but also…
The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives.…
Objective: Cause-of-death distributions are important for prioritising interventions. We estimated proportions, risks, and numbers of deaths (with uncertainty) for programme-relevant causes of neonatal death for 194 countries for 2000-2013,…
Predicting pregnancy has been a fundamental problem in women's health for more than 50 years. Previous datasets have been collected via carefully curated medical studies, but the recent growth of women's health tracking mobile apps offers…
There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments. In this paper, we construct an…
The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of infants per 1000 that do not survive until their first birthday. It is an important metric providing information about infant health but it also measures the society's general health status.…
Demographic transition, characterized by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernization. While typical patterns of fertility decline are observed in Western countries, their applicability to other…
Autoregressive moving average and generalized autoregressive moving average are often used in statistical modeling. This study uses this method because the method uses data from the previous period to model the data for the current period.…
Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…
We consider the effect of non-constant parameters on the human-forest interaction logistic model coupled with human technological growth introduced in "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis"[1]. In…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
The literature documents the effects of the pandemic on birthrate, birthweight, and pregnancy complications. This study contributes to this growing body of research by examining multiple facets of the phenomenon. Using the 2012-2022…
Family planning has been characterized by highly different strategic programs in India, including method-specific contraceptive targets, coercive sterilization, and more recent target-free approaches. These major changes in family planning…
COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic which has caused unprecedented disruptions in the public health sector and global economy. The virus, SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the rapid transmission of coronavirus disease. Due to its…
Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically…
The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…
Prescription contraceptives play a critical role in supporting women's reproductive health. With nearly 50 million women in the United States using contraceptives, understanding the factors that drive contraceptives selection and switching…
The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…