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A megathrust subduction earthquake (Mw7.8) struck the coast of Ecuador on April 16th, 2016 at 23h58 UTC. This earthquake is one of the best-recorded megathrust events up to date. Besides the mainshock, two large aftershocks have been…

The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-09-21 Fulvio Baldovin , Francesco Camana , Michele Caraglio , Attilio L. Stella , Marco Zamparo

The Kuramoto model, a paradigmatic framework for studying synchronization, exhibits a transition to collective oscillations only above a critical coupling strength in the thermodynamic limit. However, real-world systems are finite, and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-06-30 Sergei Kirillov , Vladimir Klinshov

Self-similarity may stem from two origins: the process' increments infinite variance and/or process' memory. The $b$-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law comes from the first origin. In the frame of natural time analysis of earthquake data, a…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 P. A. Varotsos , N. V. Sarlis , E. S. Skordas

Despite dissimilar slip rates, slow earthquakes are faulting as ordinary earthquakes are. It is therefore physically natural that slow earthquakes also cause postseismic motions similarly to ordinary earthquakes, even though coseismic and…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-12-04 Dye SK Sato , Takane Hori , Takeshi Iinuma , Masayuki Kano , Yusuke Tanaka

In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Jörn Davidsen , Marco Baiesi

The fundamentals of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks are presented. The theory contains an original concept of the proper time of the earthquake source, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-10-03 A. V. Guglielmi

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-23 James R Holliday , William R Graves , John B Rundle , Donald L Turcotte

Statistical similarities between earthquakes and other systems that emit cracking noises have been explored in diverse contexts, ranging from materials science to financial and social systems. Such analogies give promise of a unified and…

Geophysics · Physics 2016-06-27 Leandro S. Costa , Ervin K. Lenzi , Renio S. Mendes , Haroldo V. Ribeiro

We analyzed the correlations among the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) formula describing the aftershock rate after a mainshock as a function of time and magnitude, on the basis of parameter estimates made in previous works…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Paolo Gasperini , Barbara Lolli

It has been observed that the earthquake events possess short-term memory, i.e. that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the short history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether real-time earthquake…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-30 Zeyu Zheng , Kazuko Yamasaki , Joel Tenenbaum , Boris Podobnik , H. Eugene Stanley

The relation between seismic moment and fractured area is crucial to earthquake hazard analysis. Experimental catalogs show multiple scaling behaviors, with some controversy concerning the exponent value in the large earthquake regime.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-11 François P. Landes , E. Lippiello

We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Fabrizio Lillo , Rosario N. Mantegna

In subduction zones, seismic slip at shallow crustal depths can lead to the generation of tsunamis. Large slip displacements during tsunamogenic earthquakes are attributed to the low coseismic shear strength of the fluid-saturated and…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-06-09 S. Aretusini , F. Meneghini , E. Spagnuolo , C. W. Harbord , G. Di Toro

Large continental earthquakes activate multiple faults in a complex fault system, dynamically inducing co-seismic damage around them. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in the northern South Island of New Zealand has been reported as one…

The method of waveforms cross correlation (WCC) is used to detect signals from aftershocks of the August 14, 2016 earthquake within Sakhalin Island, which had local magnitude ML = 6.1. Arrivals of regular P- and S-waves detected by the WCC…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-12-27 Ivan Kitov

Sequences of aftershocks following Omori's empirical law are observed after most major earthquakes, as well as in laboratory-scale fault-mimicking experiments. Nevertheless, the origin of this memory effect is still unclear. In this letter,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-03-28 A. Mathey , J. Crassous , D. Marsan , J. Weiss , A. Amon

Most earthquake energy release arises during fault slip many kilometers below the Earth's surface. Understanding earthquakes and their hazard requires mapping the geometry and distribution of this slip. Such finite-fault maps are typically…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-21 Anthony Lomax

We consider an epidemic-type aftershock model (ETAS($F$)) for a large class of distributions $F$ determining the number of direct aftershocks. This class includes Poisson, Geometric, Negative Binomial distributions and many other. Assuming…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-11-09 George Molchan , Elisa Varini

We propose a ``multifractal stress activation'' model combining thermally activated rupture and long memory stress relaxation, which predicts that seismic decay rates after mainshocks follow the Omori law $\sim 1/t^p$ with exponents $p$…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 D. Sornette , G. Ouillon