Related papers: A general methodology to measure labour market dyn…

This paper investigates how institutional rigidities shape inflation persistence in transition economies, focusing on labor market institutions and exchange rate regimes. Using a large panel of transition countries over the period…

We propose experimentally feasible ways to probe universal features of absorbing phase transitions from two different approaches, both based on numerical validations. On one hand, we numerically study a probability distribution of…

The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with…

Recently a method which employs computing of fluctuations in a measure of nonlinear similarity based on local recurrence properties in a univariate time series, was introduced to identify distinct dynamical regimes and transitions between…

Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…

There is a lack of quantitative measures to evaluate the progression of topics through time in dynamic topic models (DTMs). Filling this gap, we propose a novel evaluation measure for DTMs that analyzes the changes in the quality of each…

This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…

This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…

We systematically investigate the effect heterogeneity of job search programmes for unemployed workers. To investigate possibly heterogeneous employment effects, we combine non-experimental causal empirical models with Lasso-type…

Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on the period 1982-1992, this paper investigates some mechanisms of the labor market in the United States. This market is analyzed as a stable structure constituted of segments which present…

Most studies on the labor market effects of immigration use repeated cross-sectional data to estimate the effects of immigration on regions. This paper shows that such regional effects are composites of effects that address fundamental…

Different approaches to defining dynamic market risk measures are available in the literature. Most are focused or derived from probability theory, economic behavior or dynamic programming. Here, we propose an approach to define and…

This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics…

In a physical system, changing parameters such as temperature can induce a phase transition: an abrupt change from one state of matter to another. Analogous phenomena have recently been observed in large language models. Typically, the task…

In this study we present a metric of consensus for Likert scales. The measure gives the level of agreement as the percentage of consensus among respondents. The proposed framework allows to design a positional indicator that gives the…

Analyzing the effect of business cycle on rating transitions has been a subject of great interest these last fifteen years, particularly due to the increasing pressure coming from regulators for stress testing. In this paper, we consider…

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

We present a general and flexible framework for detecting regime changes in complex, non-stationary data across multi-trial experiments. Traditional change point detection methods focus on identifying abrupt changes within a single time…

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…

Job security can never be taken for granted, especially in times of rapid, widespread and unexpected social and economic change. These changes can force workers to transition to new jobs. This may be because new technologies emerge or…