Related papers: Inference in the stochastic Cox-Ingersol-Ross diff…
In a Cox model, the partial likelihood, as the product of a series of conditional probabilities, is used to estimate the regression coefficients. In practice, those conditional probabilities are approximated by risk score ratios based on a…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
Our study focuses on fractional order compartment models derived from underlying physical stochastic processes, providing a more physically grounded approach compared to models that use the dynamical system approach by simply replacing…
Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…
This paper proposes an Adaptive Stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for stable linear time-invariant systems in the presence of bounded disturbances. We consider multi-input, multi-output systems that can be expressed by a…
We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of…
We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold…
We investigate parametric estimation of the elasticity parameter in the CKLS diffusion based on high-frequency data. First, we transform the CKLS diffusion to a CIR-type one via a smooth state-space mapping and the general Girsanov change…
We present Path Integral Sampler~(PIS), a novel algorithm to draw samples from unnormalized probability density functions. The PIS is built on the Schr\"odinger bridge problem which aims to recover the most likely evolution of a diffusion…
We study the dynamics of a class of two dimensional stochastic processes, depending on two parameters, which may be interpreted as two different temperatures, respectively associated to interfacial and to bulk noise. Special lines in the…
An individual-based model of stochastic branching is proposed and studied, in which point particles drift in $\bar{\mathds{R}}_{+}:=[0,+\infty)$ towards the origin (edge) with unit speed, where each of them splits into two particles that…
Using the technique of moving domains, and classical direct stochastic calculus, we construct the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process, as well as its square root, with additional skew reflection on a deterministic time dependent curve.
We present a new Bayesian inference method for compartmental models that takes into account the intrinsic stochasticity of the process. We show how to formulate a SIR-type Markov jump process as the solution of a stochastic differential…
We study the jump-diffusion CIR process, which is an extension of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model and whose jumps are introduced by a subordinator. We provide sufficient conditions on the L\'evy measure of the subordinator under which the…
In this paper, an alternative approximation to the innovation method is introduced for the parameter estimation of diffusion processes from partial and noisy observations. This is based on a convergent approximation to the first two…
In this paper, we consider stochastic versions of three classical growth models given by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Indeed we use stochastic versions of Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Logistic differential equations as models.…
After collecting data from observations or experiments, the next step is to build an appropriate mathematical or stochastic model to describe the data so that further studies can be done with the help of the models. In this article, the…
In the Monte Carlo (MC) method statistical noise is usually present. Statistical noise may become dominant in the calculation of a distribution, usually by iteration, but is less Important in calculating integrals. The subject of the…
This paper considers a general stochastic SIR epidemic model driven by a multidimensional Levy jump process with heavy tailed increments and possible correlation between noise components. In this framework, we derive new sufficient…
In this paper we develop a continuous-time sequential importance sampling (CIS) algorithm which eliminates time-discretisation errors and provides online unbiased estimation for continuous time Markov processes, in particular for…