Related papers: Inference in the stochastic Cox-Ingersol-Ross diff…
Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…
We present new high order approximations schemes for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process that are obtained by using a recent technique developed by Alfonsi and Bally (2021) for the approximation of semigroups. The idea consists in using a…
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates.…
In this paper we study the properties of the Lasso estimator of the drift component in the diffusion setting. More specifically, we consider a multivariate parametric diffusion model $X$ observed continuously over the interval $[0,T]$ and…
Stochastic reaction-diffusion models are employed to represent many complex physical, biological, societal, and ecological systems. The macroscopic reaction rates describing the large-scale kinetics in such systems are effective,…
We propose a change detection method for the famous Cox--Ingersoll--Ross model. This model is widely used in financial mathematics and therefore detecting a change in its parameters is of crucial importance. We develop one- and two-sided…
This paper examines the problem of pricing spread options under some models with jumps driven by Compound Poisson Processes and stochastic volatilities in the form of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR) processes. We derive the characteristic function…
Convergence of stochastic processes with jumps to diffusion processes is investigated in the case when the limit process has discontinuous coefficients. An example is given in which the diffusion approximation of a queueing model yields a…
This paper considers maximum likelihood inference for a functional marked point process - the stochastic growth-interaction process - which is an extension of the spatio-temporal growth-interaction process to the stochastic mark setting. As…
This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…
We describe stochastic calculus in the context of processes that are driven by an adapted point process of locally finite intensity and are differentiable between jumps. This includes Markov chains as well as non-Markov processes. By…
We consider a non-stationary Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We establish a sharp large deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimator of its drift parameter.
We propose a conditional stochastic interpolation (CSI) method for learning conditional distributions. CSI is based on estimating probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations that transport a reference distribution to the…
We study the nonparametric estimation for the intensity of Poisson random measure in jump-diffusion CIR model based on the low frequency observations. This is given in terms of the minimization of norms on a nonempty, closed and convex…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
This paper introduces a way of modeling the epidemic transmission rate using a stochastic process of the form $(\beta_t = \varphi(t)P_t : t \ge 0)$, where the positive deterministic function $\varphi(t)$ models the impact of a public health…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…