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This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla , Haotian Xu , Daren Wang , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-13 Azadeh Khaleghi , Daniil Ryabko

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Ciaran Evans , Max G'Sell

We study multiple change-points detection using multi-samples tests based on U-statistics for absolutely regular observations. Our results extend those of Ngatchou-Wandji et al. (2022) concerned with the study of one single changepoint. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Joseph Ngatchou-Wandji , Echarif Elharfaoui , Michel Harel

In standardized educational testing, test items are reused in multiple test administrations. To ensure the validity of test scores, the psychometric properties of items should remain unchanged over time. In this paper, we consider the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-26 Yunxiao Chen , Yi-Hsuan Lee , Xiaoou Li

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Caitlin Ward , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt

We consider the problem of sequential change detection, where the goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Aaditya Ramdas

We introduce a generic class of dynamic nonlinear heterogeneous parameter models that incorporate individual and time fixed effects in both the intercept and slope. These models are subject to the incidental parameter problem, in that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Xuan Leng , Jiaming Mao , Yutao Sun

A binomial time series describes binary behaviors of individuals within a group, which depend on group behaviors in the past. Binomial time series data is widely applied in fields such as infection tracking and behavior analysis. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Yajun Liu , Beth Andrews

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots $ be independent random variables observed sequentially and such that $X_1,\ldots,X_{\theta-1}$ have a common probability density $p_0$, while $X_\theta,X_{\theta+1},\ldots $ are all distributed according to $p_1\neq…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-25 Yuri Golubev , Mher Safarian

Suppose that a sequence of data points follows a distribution of a certain parametric form, but that one or more of the underlying parameters may change over time. This paper addresses various natural questions in such a framework. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Nils Lid Hjort , Alex J. Koning

We develop a testing procedure for distinguishing between a long-range dependent time series and a weakly dependent time series with change-points in the mean. In the simplest case, under the null hypothesis the time series is weakly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 István Berkes , Lajos Horváth , Piotr Kokoszka , Qi-Man Shao

Many time series problems feature epidemic changes - segments where a parameter deviates from a background baseline. The number and location of such changes can be estimated in a principled way by existing detection methods, providing that…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-20 Julius Juodakis , Stephen Marsland

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-20 Loïc Schwaller , Stéphane Robin

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jenny Huang , Raphaël Morsomme , David Dunson , Jason Xu

We study an epidemic type change in innovations of a first order autoregressive process $ y_{n,k} = \varphi_n y_{n,k-1} + \epsilon_{k} + a_{n,k}$, where $\phi_n$ is either a constant in $(-1,1)$ or a sequence in $(0,1)$, converging to 1.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-21 Jurgita Markevičiūtė , Alfredas Račkauskas , Charles Suquet

Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-31 Sei Zhen Khong , Lanlan Su

We investigate sequential change point estimation and detection in univariate nonparametric settings, where a stream of independent observations from sub-Gaussian distributions with a common variance factor and piecewise-constant but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-16 Yi Yu , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

This paper is devoted to the off-line multiple change-point detection in a semiparametric framework. The time series is supposed to belong to a large class of models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),... models where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-04 Jean-Marc Bardet , William Chakry Kengne , Olivier Wintenberger