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Modern machine learning (ML) methods typically fail to adequately capture causal information. Consequently, such models do not handle data distributional shifts, are vulnerable to adversarial examples, and often learn spurious correlations.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-27 Rishi Goel , Casey R. Myers , Sally Shrapnel

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

Recent studies have proposed causal machine learning (CML) methods to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). In this study, I investigate whether CML methods add value compared to conventional CATE estimators by…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-07 Anthony Strittmatter

In a changing climate, sustainable agriculture is essential for food security and environmental health. However, it is challenging to understand the complex interactions among its biophysical, social, and economic components. Predictive…

A topic of great current interest is Causal Representation Learning (CRL), whose goal is to learn a causal model for hidden features in a data-driven manner. Unfortunately, CRL is severely ill-posed since it is a combination of the two…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-10 Hiroshi Morioka , Aapo Hyvärinen

Estimating causal treatment effects in observational settings is frequently compromised by selection bias arising from unobserved confounders. While traditional econometric methods struggle when these confounders are orthogonal to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Ahmed Dawoud , Osama El-Shamy

In studies of educational production functions or intergenerational mobility, it is common to transform the key variables into percentile ranks. Yet, it remains unclear what the regression coefficient estimates with ranks of the outcome or…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-11 Lihua Lei

Causal representation learning (CRL) offers the promise of uncovering the underlying causal model by which observed data was generated, but the practical applicability of existing methods remains limited by the strong assumptions required…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Erdun Gao , Biwei Huang , Mingming Gong , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational…

The linear coefficient in a partially linear model with confounding variables can be estimated using double machine learning (DML). However, this DML estimator has a two-stage least squares (TSLS) interpretation and may produce overly wide…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-03 Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann

Recent years have witnessed the rapid growth of machine learning in a wide range of fields such as image recognition, text classification, credit scoring prediction, recommendation system, etc. In spite of their great performance in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Guandong Xu , Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Shaowu Liu , Xianzhi Wang

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Many decision-making problems require ranking individuals by their treatment effects rather than estimating the exact effect magnitudes. Examples include prioritizing patients for preventive care interventions, or ranking customers by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Henri Arno , Dennis Frauen , Emil Javurek , Thomas Demeester , Stefan Feuerriegel

We examine the challenges in ranking multiple treatments based on their estimated effects when using linear regression or its popular double-machine-learning variant, the Partially Linear Model (PLM), in the presence of treatment effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-06 Apoorva Lal

In response to the increasing complexity of policy environments and the proliferation of high-dimensional data, this paper introduces the S-DIDML estimator a framework grounded in structure and semiparametrically flexible for causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Yile Yu , Anzhi Xu

Causal reasoning can be considered a cornerstone of intelligent systems. Having access to an underlying causal graph comes with the promise of cause-effect estimation and the identification of efficient and safe interventions. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Amir Mohammad Karimi Mamaghan , Andrea Dittadi , Stefan Bauer , Karl Henrik Johansson , Francesco Quinzan

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-21 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Xing Yan , Qi Wu , Nanbo Peng , Dongdong Wang , Zhixiang Huang

While Reinforcement Learning (RL) achieves tremendous success in sequential decision-making problems of many domains, it still faces key challenges of data inefficiency and the lack of interpretability. Interestingly, many researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Yan Zeng , Ruichu Cai , Fuchun Sun , Libo Huang , Zhifeng Hao

Reconstructing accurate causal models of dynamic systems from time-series of sensor data is a key problem in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we present an overview based on our experience about practical challenges that the causal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Luca Castri , Sariah Mghames , Nicola Bellotto

Double Machine Learning is often justified by nuisance-rate conditions, yet finite-sample reliability also depends on the conditioning of the orthogonal-score Jacobian. This conditioning is typically assumed rather than tracked. When…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Gabriel Saco