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We consider a strictly substochastic matrix or an stochastic matrix with absorbing states. By using quasi-stationary distributions one shows there is a canonical associated stationary Markov chain. Based upon $2-$stringing representation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-03 Servet Martínez

In the continuity of a recent paper ([6]), dealing with finite Markov chains, this paper proposes and analyzes a recursive algorithm for the approximation of the quasi-stationary distribution of a general Markov chain living on a compact…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Michel Benaim , Bertrand Cloez , Fabien Panloup

In the setting of stochastic dynamical systems that eventually go extinct, the quasi-stationary distributions are useful to understand the long-term behavior of a system before evanescence. For a broad class of applicable continuous-time…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-22 Mads Christian Hansen , Carsten Wiuf

This paper investigates tail asymptotics of stationary distributions and quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs) of continuous-time Markov chains on subsets of the non-negative integers. Based on the so-called flux-balance equation, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-16 Chuang Xu , Mads Christian Hansen , Carsten Wiuf

In this note we consider a Markov chain formed by a finite system of interacting birth-and-death processes on a finite state space. We study an asymptotic behaviour of the Markov chain as its state space becomes large. In particular, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-14 Vadim Shcherbakov , Anatoly Yambartsev

In this paper, we consider semi-Markov processes whose transition times and transition probabilities depend on a small parameter $\varepsilon$. Understanding the asymptotic behavior of such processes is needed in order to study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Leonid Koralov , Ishfaaq Mohammed Imtiyas

We consider a collection of Markov chains that model the evolution of multitype biological populations. The state space of the chains is the positive orthant, and the boundary of the orthant is absorbing representing the extinction states…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-18 Amarjit Budhiraja , Nicolas Fraiman , Adam Waterbury

Asymptotic expansions for stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed birth-death-type semi-Markov models are presented. Applications to models of population growth, epidemic spread and population…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-11 Dmitrii Silvestrov , Mikael Petersson , Ola Hössjer

This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of population processes with unbounded absorption rate, including one-dimensional birth and death processes with catastrophes and multi-dimensional birth and death processes, modeling…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-10 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

We introduce the concept of asymptotic period for an irreducible and aperiodic, discrete-time Markov chain X on a countable state space, and develop the theory leading to its formal definition. The asymptotic period of X equals one - its…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-05 Erik A. van Doorn

A single joinpoint changepoint model partitions a time series into two segments, joined at the changepoint time by constraining the estimated piecewise linear regression responses to be continuous. This manuscript derives the exact…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Xueheng Shi , Robert Lund

This paper considers the subexponential asymptotics of the stationary distributions of GI/G/1-type Markov chains in two cases: (i) the phase transition matrix in non-boundary levels is stochastic; and (ii) it is strictly substochastic. For…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-22 Tatsuaki Kimura , Hiroyuki Masuyama , Yutaka Takahashi

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

We derive asymptotic formulas for the mean exit time $\bar{\tau}^{N}$ of the fastest among $N$ identical independently distributed Brownian particles to an absorbing boundary for various initial distributions (partially uniformly and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-07-07 Suney Toste , David Holcman

The stochastic SIRS model is a continuous-time Markov chain modelling the spread of infectious diseases with temporary immunity, in a homogeneously-mixing population of fixed size $N$. We study the scaling behaviour of the extinction time…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-14 Jingran Zhai

This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-03 Peter Windridge

Nearest neighbor random walks in the quarter plane that are absorbed when reaching the boundary are studied. The cases of positive and zero drift are considered. Absorption probabilities at a given time and at a given site are made…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-18 Kilian Raschel

We consider a Markov process $ X(t) $ on the nonnegative integers $E= S \cup \{0\}$, where $S=\{1,2,...\}$ is an irreducible class and 0 is an absorbing state. In this paper, we investigate conditions under which the quasi-stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-09 Hanjun Zhang , Pengwen Guo , Yixia Zhu

We consider a simple but important class of metastable discrete time Markov chains, which we call perturbed Markov chains. Basically, we assume that the transition matrices depend on a parameter $\varepsilon$, and converge as $\varepsilon$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-23 Volker Betz , Stéphane Le Roux