Related papers: Asymptomatic Phase and Convergent Evolution of Cor…

There is a near consensus view that SARS-CoV-2 has a natural zoonotic origin; however, several characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 taken together are not easily explained by a natural zoonotic origin hypothesis. These include: a low rate of…

Pathogens drive changes in host immune systems that in turn exert pressure for pathogens to evolve. Quantifying and understanding this constant coevolutionary process has clear practical global health implications. Yet its relatively easier…

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), with a starting point in China, has spread rapidly among people living in other countries, and is approaching approximately 34,986,502 cases worldwide according to the statistics of European…

More than any other infectious disease epidemic, the COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by the generation of large volumes of viral genomic data at an incredible pace due to recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies,…

We propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first…

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus two (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, represents an unprecedented global health challenge. Consequently, a large amount of research into…

How may exposure risks to SARS-CoV-2 be assessed quantitatively? The material metabolism approach of Industrial Ecology can be applied to the mass flows of these virions by their numbers, as a key step in the analysis of the current…

We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…

COVID-19 remains a challenging global threat with ongoing waves of infections and clinical disease which have resulted millions of deaths and an enormous strain on health systems worldwide. Effective vaccines have been developed for the…

Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread from person to person. Vaccination dramatically disrupts the disease transmission process on a contact network, and indeed, sufficiently…

Asymptomatic infection has gained notoriety as an important feature of infectious disease dynamics. Despite increasing attention, there have been few rigorous examinations of how asymptomatic transmission influences pathogen evolution. In…

This paper is a short extension of our previous paper [arXiv:2004.06033] about the use of the Test-Negative design to study risk factors for COVID-19 [See: PubMed and ArXiv reference below] Reason for the extension is that the conditions…

We investigate the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered contagion dynamics in a system of self-propelled particles with polar alignment. Using agent-based simulations, we analyze the outbreak process for different combinations of the spatial…

This paper proposes a cluster-based method to analyze the evolution of multivariate time series and applies this to the COVID-19 pandemic. On each day, we partition countries into clusters according to both their case and death counts. The…

The behaviour of individuals is a main actor in the control of the spread of a communicable disease and, in turn, the spread of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural changes in a population. Here, we study the emergence of the…

When the novel coronavirus disease SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) was officially declared a pandemic by the WHO in March 2020, the scientific community had already braced up in the effort of making sense of the fast-growing wealth of data gathered by…

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

The latest severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant Omicron (B.1.1.529) has ushered panic responses around the world due to its contagious and vaccine escape mutations. The essential infectivity and antibody…