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Learning and forecasting stochastic time series is essential in various scientific fields. However, despite the proposals of nonlinear filters and deep-learning methods, it remains challenging to capture nonlinear dynamics from a few noisy…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Christian Donner , Anuj Mishra , Hideaki Shimazaki

The problem of determining the mathematical model of the dynamics of multi-dimensional control systems in the presence of noise under the condition that the correlation functions cannot be found. Known statistical dynamics of linear systems…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2013-01-29 V. N. Tibabishev

Experimental data is often affected by uncontrolled variables that make analysis and interpretation difficult. For spatiotemporal systems, this problem is further exacerbated by their intricate dynamics. Modern machine learning methods are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-09-16 Peter Y. Lu , Samuel Kim , Marin Soljačić

In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-01 Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Mingming Gong , Clark Glymour

Noise poses a challenge for learning dynamical-system models because already small variations can distort the dynamics described by trajectory data. This work builds on operator inference from scientific machine learning to infer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-27 Wayne Isaac Tan Uy , Yuepeng Wang , Yuxiao Wen , Benjamin Peherstorfer

Understanding how systems evolve over time often requires discovering the differential equations that govern their behavior. Automatically learning these equations from experimental data is challenging when the data are noisy or limited,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-11-19 Oriol Cabanas-Tirapu , Sergio Cobo-Lopez , Savannah E. Sanchez , Forest L. Rohwer , Marta Sales-Pardo , Roger Guimerà

Model-free data-driven computational mechanics replaces phenomenological constitutive functions by numerical simulations based on data sets of representative samples in stress-strain space. The distance of strain and stress pairs from the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-11-29 Kerem Ciftci , Klaus Hackl

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Patrick E. McSharry , Leonard A. Smith

Scientific analysis often relies on the ability to make accurate predictions of a system's dynamics. Mechanistic models, parameterized by a number of unknown parameters, are often used for this purpose. Accurate estimation of the model…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Franz Hamilton , Alun Lloyd , Kevin Flores

In this paper, we apply a recently developed nonparametric modeling approach, the "diffusion forecast", to predict the time-evolution of Fourier modes of turbulent dynamical systems. While the diffusion forecasting method assumes the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-03-23 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim

Reconstructing noise-driven nonlinear networks from time series of output variables is a challenging problem, which turns to be very difficult when nonlinearity of dynamics, strong noise impacts and low measurement frequencies jointly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-20 Rundong Shi , Gang Hu , Shihong Wang

For dynamical systems that can be modelled as asymptotically stable linear systems forced by Gaussian noise, this paper develops methods to infer or estimate their modes from observations in real time. The modes can be real or complex. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-30 Robert S. MacKay

We investigate nonlinear state-space models without a closed-form transition density, and propose reformulating such models over their latent noise variables rather than their latent state variables. In doing so the tractable noise density…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-11 Lawrence M. Murray , Emlyn M. Jones , John Parslow

In this paper, we present a data-driven controller design method for continuous-time nonlinear systems, using no model knowledge but only measured data affected by noise. While most existing approaches focus on systems with polynomial…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-11 Robin Strässer , Julian Berberich , Frank Allgöwer

This paper addresses the problem of learning linear dynamical systems from noisy observations. In this setting, existing algorithms either yield biased parameter estimates or have large sample complexities. We resolve these issues by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-08 Yuyang Zhang , Xinhe Zhang , Jia Liu , Na Li

High-throughput data analyses are becoming common in biology, communications, economics and sociology. The vast amounts of data are usually represented in the form of matrices and can be considered as knowledge networks. Spectra-based…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2010-01-06 Viet-Anh Nguyen , Zdena Koukolikova-Nicola , Franco Bagnoli , Pietro Lio

Data-driven control of nonlinear systems with rigorous guarantees is a challenging problem as it usually calls for nonconvex optimization and requires often knowledge of the true basis functions of the system dynamics. To tackle these…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-27 Tim Martin , Thomas B. Schön , Frank Allgöwer

The time-dependent fields obtained by solving partial differential equations in two and more dimensions quickly overwhelm the analytical capabilities of the human brain. A meaningful insight into the temporal behaviour can be obtained by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-04 Miha Rot , Martin Horvat , Gregor Kosec

Knowledge about existence, strength, and dominant direction of causal influences is of paramount importance for understanding complex systems. With limited amounts of realistic data, however, current methods for investigating causal links…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-20 Erik Laminski , Klaus R. Pawelzik

Parameter estimation of nonlinear state-space models from input-output data typically requires solving a highly non-convex optimization problem prone to slow convergence and suboptimal solutions. This work improves the reliability and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-27 Merijn Floren , Jan Swevers