Related papers: Sensitivity analysis of an integrated climate-econ…
In this paper, we provide an integrated systems modeling approach to analyzing global externalities from a microeconomic perspective. Various forms of policy (fiscal, monetary, etc.) have addressed flaws and market failures in models, but…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
We study the Hamiltonian dynamics of the spherical spin model with fully-connected two-body interactions drawn from a Gaussian probability distribution. In the statistical physics framework, the potential energy is of the so-called $p=2$…
The velocity field and the height at the surface of a dynamic ice sheet are observed. The ice sheets are modeled by the full Stokes equations and shallow shelf/shelfy stream approximations. Time dependence is introduced by a kinematic free…
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not…
A common approach to estimation of economic models is to calibrate a sub-set of model parameters and keep them fixed when estimating the remaining parameters. Calibrated parameters likely affect conclusions based on the model but estimation…
Climate sensitivity has remained stubbornly uncertain since the Charney Report was published some 45 years ago. Two factors in future climate projections could alter this dilemma: (i) an increased ratio of CO$_2$ forcing relative to aerosol…
In this work, we investigate the non-Markovian features of the Adapted Caldeira-Leggett model, a computationally efficient framework recently proposed to capture the essential physics of the standard Caldeira-Leggett model. While this…
Abstract: The rising global temperatures caused by climate change significantly impact energy consumption and electricity generation. Fluctuating temperatures and frequent extreme weather events disrupt energy production and consumption…
Sensitivity analysis is concerned with understanding how the model output depends on uncertainties (variances) in inputs and then identifies which inputs are important in contributing to the prediction imprecision. Uncertainty determination…
Promoting and increasing energy efficiency is a promising method of reducing CO2 emissions and avoiding the potentially devastating effects of climate change. The question is: How do we induce a cultural or behavioural change whereby people…
In both finance and economics, quantitative models are usually studied as isolated mathematical objects --- most often defined by very strong simplifying assumptions concerning rationality, efficiency and the existence of disequilibrium…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
Energy systems modellers often resort to simplified system representations and deterministic model formulations (i.e., not considering uncertainty) to preserve computational tractability. However, reduced levels of detail and neglected…
In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter sensitivity in models of complex dynamical systems through the lens of information geometry. We calculate the sensitivity of model behavior to variations in parameters. In most cases,…
The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…
We analyze a three-dimensional Keen--Goodwin model that couples wage--employment dynamics with Minsky-style private debt. At zero real interest the interior equilibrium is nonhyperbolic and organized by a two-dimensional center manifold…
Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…
An array system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economy evolution. The local dynamics of each map or agent is controlled by two parameters. One of them represents the growth capacity of the agent and the other one is a control…