Related papers: Sensitivity analysis of an integrated climate-econ…
In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…
Sensitivity analysis is a cornerstone of climate science, essential for understanding phenomena ranging from storm intensity to long-term climate feedbacks. However, computing these sensitivities using traditional physical models is often…
Climate change and global warming are among the most significant issues that humanity is currently facing, and also among the issues that pose the greatest threats to all mankind. These issues are primarily driven by abnormal increases in…
This paper presents an integrated modelling assessment that estimated the sensitivities of five endogenous factors in commercial rangelands, i.e. number of active farmers, profits, stocking rate, standing herbage biomass, and soil erosion,…
This paper presents a conceptual model describing the medium and long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. An economy is viewed as an out-of-equilibrium dissipative structure that can only be maintained with…
A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over…
The understanding of the fundamental properties of the climate system has long benefitted from the use of simple numerical models able to parsimoniously represent the essential ingredients of its processes. Here we introduce a new model for…
We present a model predictive control (MPC) formulation to directly optimize economic criteria for linear constrained systems subject to disturbances and uncertain model parameters. The proposed formulation combines a certainty equivalent…
The economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Two of the most important uncertainties are the sensitivity of the climate system and the so-called damage functions, which relate climate change to economic damages and benefits.…
Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider…
Probabilistic projections of baseline (with no additional mitigation policies) future carbon emissions are important for sound climate risk assessments. Deep uncertainty surrounds many drivers of projected emissions. Here we use a simple…
We use molecular dynamics simulations to investigate dynamic heterogeneities and the potential energy landscape of the Gaussian core model (GCM). Despite the nearly Gaussian statistics of particles' displacements, the GCM exhibits giant…
Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the…
Economic assessment in environmental science concerns the measurement or valuation of environmental impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Integrated assessment modeling is a unifying framework of environmental economics, which attempts to…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are pivotal tools that synthesize knowledge from climate science, economics, and policy to evaluate the interactions between human activities and the climate system. They serve as essential instruments…
This paper presents a novel modeling approach for building performance simulation, characterized as a white-box model with a high degree of modularity and flexibility, enabling direct integration into complex large-scale energy system…
In dynamic discrete choice models, some parameters, such as the discount factor, are being fixed instead of being estimated. This paper proposes two sensitivity analysis procedures for dynamic discrete choice models with respect to the…
Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
The initial Climate-Extended Risk Model (CERM) addresses the estimate of climate-related financial risk embedded within a bank loan portfolio, through a climatic extension of the Basel II IRB model. It uses a Gaussian copula model…