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Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal…

This paper formulates algorithms to upper-bound the maximum Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a state function along trajectories of stochastic processes. The VaR is upper bounded by two methods: minimax tail-bounds (Cantelli/Vysochanskij-Petunin) and…

We introduce two quantum algorithms to compute the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of financial derivatives using quantum computers: the first by applying existing ideas from quantum risk analysis to derivative…

For robust statistical inference it is crucial to obtain a good estimator of the variance of the proposed estimator of the statistical estimand. A commonly used estimator of the variance for an asymptotically linear estimator is the sample…

We introduce a proxy-reliance-controlled conformal recalibration framework for one-sided Value-at-Risk (VaR), and study a question that existing state-aware methods do not usually isolate: how strongly should the recalibration adjustment…

Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to…

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…

Ensuring the safety of neural networks under input uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in safety-critical applications. This paper builds on and expands Fazlyab's quadratic-constraint (QC) and semidefinite-programming (SDP) framework for…

Optimizing static risk-averse objectives in Markov decision processes is difficult because they do not admit standard dynamic programming equations common in Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. Dynamic programming decompositions that…

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

Monte Carlo Approaches for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) are powerful tools widely used by financial risk managers across the globe. However, they are time consuming and sometimes inaccurate. In this paper, a fast and accurate Monte Carlo…

Robust estimators for linear regression require non-convex objective functions to shield against adverse affects of outliers. This non-convexity brings challenges, particularly when combined with penalization in high-dimensional settings.…

Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…

Value-at-Risk is one of the most popular risk management tools in the financial industry. Over the past 20 years several attempts to include VaR in the portfolio selection process have been proposed. However, using VaR as a risk measure in…

Careful tuning of a regularization parameter is indispensable in many machine learning tasks because it has a significant impact on generalization performances. Nevertheless, current practice of regularization parameter tuning is more of an…

Uncertainty modeling has become increasingly important in power system decision-making. The widely-used tractable uncertainty modeling method-chance constraints with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) approximation, can be overconservative…

Estimating out-of-sample risk for models trained on large high-dimensional datasets is an expensive but essential part of the machine learning process, enabling practitioners to optimally tune hyperparameters. Cross-validation (CV) serves…

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…