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We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-17 Andrew L. Allan

We consider the problem of fitting variational posterior approximations using stochastic optimization methods. The performance of these approximations depends on (1) how well the variational family matches the true posterior…

This paper proposes to use probabilistic model checking to synthesize optimal robot policies in multi-tasking autonomous systems that are subject to human-robot interaction. Given the convincing empirical evidence that human behavior can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Sebastian Junges , Nils Jansen , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-15 Rohan Sinha , James Harrison , Spencer M. Richards , Marco Pavone

In robust Markov decision processes (MDPs), the uncertainty in the transition kernel is addressed by finding a policy that optimizes the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of MDPs. While much of the literature has focused on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Yue Wang , Alvaro Velasquez , George Atia , Ashley Prater-Bennette , Shaofeng Zou

An important step in the Markov reward approach to error bounds on stationary performance measures of Markov chains is to bound the bias terms. Affine functions have been successfully used for these bounds for various models, but there are…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-04 Xinwei Bai , Jasper Goseling

In this paper we build on previous work which uses inferences techniques, in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to solve parameterized control problems. We propose a number of modifications in order to make this approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Matthias Hoffman , Hendrik Kueck , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet

Uncertainties influencing the dynamical systems pose a significant challenge in estimating the achievable performance of a controller aiming to control such uncertain systems. When the uncertainties are of stochastic nature, obtaining hard…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-22 Venkatraman Renganathan

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-12 Thomas Krak , Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

In this paper a class of optimization problems with uncertain linear constraints is discussed. It is assumed that the constraint coefficients are random vectors whose probability distributions are only partially known. Possibility theory is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-30 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

We present a learning model predictive control (MPC) scheme for chance-constrained Markov jump systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Mathijs Schuurmans , Panagiotis Patrinos

This paper studies the expected value of multiplicative rewards, where rewards obtained in each step are multiplied (instead of the usual addition), in Markov chains (MCs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). One of the key differences to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Christel Baier , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Tobias Meggendorfer , Jakob Piribauer

Reward models play a critical role in guiding large language models toward outputs that align with human expectations. However, an open challenge remains in effectively utilizing test-time compute to enhance reward model performance. In…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Jiaxin Guo , Zewen Chi , Li Dong , Qingxiu Dong , Xun Wu , Shaohan Huang , Furu Wei

Reward Models (RMs) are crucial for online alignment of language models (LMs) with human preferences. However, RM-based preference-tuning is vulnerable to reward hacking, whereby LM policies learn undesirable behaviors from flawed RMs. By…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Daniel Fein , Max Lamparth , Violet Xiang , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Nick Haber

While Robust Model Predictive Control considers the worst-case system uncertainty, Stochastic Model Predictive Control, using chance constraints, provides less conservative solutions by allowing a certain constraint violation probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-17 Tim Brüdigam , Victor Gaßmann , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

Robust model predictive control algorithms are essential for addressing unavoidable errors due to the uncertainty in predicting real-world systems. However, the formulation of such algorithms typically results in a trade-off between…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-25 Moritz Heinlein , Sankaranarayanan Subramanian , Sergio Lucia

Despite its prevalence, probabilistic bisimilarity suffers from a lack of robustness under minuscule perturbations of the transition probabilities. This can lead to discontinuities in the probabilistic bisimilarity distance function,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Syyeda Zainab Fatmi , Stefan Kiefer , David Parker , Franck van Breugel

We propose a novel approach to design a robust Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for constrained uncertain linear systems. The uncertain system is modeled as linear parameter varying with additive disturbance. Set bounds for the system…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-11 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Ugo Rosolia , Yvonne R Stürz , Xiaojing Zhang , Francesco Borrelli

Model explainability is crucial for human users to be able to interpret how a proposed classifier assigns labels to data based on its feature values. We study generalized linear models constructed using sets of feature value rules, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Sanjeeb Dash , Soumyadip Ghosh , Joao Goncalves , Mark S. Squillante

Markov decision processes (MDPs) with rewards are a widespread and well-studied model for systems that make both probabilistic and nondeterministic choices. A fundamental result about MDPs is that their minimal and maximal expected rewards…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Kevin Batz , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Christoph Matheja , Tobias Winkler