Related papers: Modeling Macroeconomic Variations After COVID-19
In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a…
Severe acute respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 has had a found impact on public health systems and healthcare emergency response especially with respect to making decisions on the most effective measures to be taken at any given time. As…
Our paper presents a methodology to study the heterogeneous effects of economy-wide shocks and applies it to the case of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on exports. This methodology is applicable in scenarios where the pervasive nature of…
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which purpose it…
One of the most important incidents in the world in 2020 is the outbreak of the Coronavirus. Users on social networks publish a large number of comments about this event. These comments contain important hidden information of public opinion…
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…
The SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 disease have posed unprecedented and overwhelming demand, challenges and opportunities to domain, model and data driven modeling. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the challenges, tasks,…
This work validates a dynamic production network model, used to quantify the impact of economic shocks caused by COVID-19 in the UK, using data for Belgium. Because the model was published early during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, it relied…
Reliable estimates of volatility and correlation are fundamental in economics and finance for understanding the impact of macroeconomics events on the market and guiding future investments and policies. Dependence across financial returns…
We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast…
This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. As of September 30, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 33…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the world since the World Health Organization declared its outbreak on 30th January 2020, recognizing the outbreak as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. As often said by politicians and…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…