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A new risk measure, the lambda value at risk (Lambda VaR), has been recently proposed from a theoretical point of view as a generalization of the value at risk (VaR). The Lambda VaR appears attractive for its potential ability to solve…
A simple approach to obtaining uncertainty-aware neural networks for regression is to do Bayesian linear regression (BLR) on the representation from the last hidden layer. Recent work [Riquelme et al., 2018, Azizzadenesheli et al., 2018]…
Doubly robust estimators have gained popularity in the field of causal inference due to their ability to provide consistent point estimates when either an outcome or exposure model is correctly specified. However, for nonrandomized…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
In modern experimental science, there is a common problem of estimating the coefficients of a linear regression in a context where the variables of interest cannot be observed simultaneously. When there is a categorical variable that is…
In this paper, we propose a new test for checking the parametric form of the conditional variance based on distance covariance in nonlinear and nonparametric regression models. Inherit from the nice properties of distance covariance, our…
What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance…
We study the asymptotic properties of the GLS estimator in multivariate regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We derive Wald statistics for linear restrictions and assess their performance. The statistics remains robust…
Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be…
Due to its strong interpretability, linear regression is widely used in social science, from which significance test provides the significance level of models or coefficients in the traditional statistical inference. However, linear…
We develop a class of tests for semiparametric vector autoregressive (VAR) models with unspecified innovation densities, based on the recent measure-transportation-based concepts of multivariate {\it center-outward ranks} and {\it signs}.…
Reliability of machine learning evaluation -- the consistency of observed evaluation scores across replicated model training runs -- is affected by several sources of nondeterminism which can be regarded as measurement noise. Current…
We consider linear regression model estimation where the covariate of interest is randomly censored. Under a non-informative censoring mechanism, one may obtain valid estimates by deleting censored observations. However, this comes at a…
The R package CVEK introduces a suite of flexible machine learning models and robust hypothesis tests for learning the joint nonlinear effects of multiple covariates in limited samples. It implements the Cross-validated Ensemble of Kernels…
Maximum likelihood estimation of large Markov-switching vector autoregressions (MS-VARs) can be challenging or infeasible due to parameter proliferation. To accommodate situations where dimensionality may be of comparable order to or…
We study the performance of estimators of a sparse nonrandom vector based on an observation which is linearly transformed and corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise. Using the reproducing kernel Hilbert space framework, we derive a new…
We propose a variational autoencoder (VAE) approach for parameter estimation in nonlinear mixed-effects models based on ordinary differential equations (NLME-ODEs) using longitudinal data from multiple subjects. In moderate dimensions,…
Human label variation (HLV) challenges the standard assumption that a labelled instance has a single ground truth, instead embracing the natural variation in human annotation to train and evaluate models. While various training methods and…
Variance estimation in the linear model when $p > n$ is a difficult problem. Standard least squares estimation techniques do not apply. Several variance estimators have been proposed in the literature, all with accompanying asymptotic…