Related papers: Prewhitened Long-Run Variance Estimation Robust to…

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

This paper studies multi-horizon Granger causality using high-dimensional local projections in sparse Vector Autoregressive (VAR) systems. Since local projection coefficients are nonlinear transformations of the underlying VAR parameters,…

The lasso has been studied extensively as a tool for estimating the coefficient vector in the high-dimensional linear model; however, considerably less is known about estimating the error variance in this context. In this paper, we propose…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a widely used technique for data classification. The method offers adequate performance in many classification problems, but it becomes inefficient when the data covariance matrix is ill-conditioned.…

We study general nonlinear models for time series networks of integer and continuous valued data. The vector of high dimensional responses, measured on the nodes of a known network, is regressed non-linearly on its lagged value and on…

Likelihood-based estimation methods involve the normalising constant of the model distributions, expressed as a function of the parameter. However in many problems this function is not easily available, and then less efficient but more…

The linear regression model with a random variable (RV) measurement matrix, where the mean of the random measurement matrix has full column rank, has been extensively studied. In particular, the quasiconvexity of the maximum likelihood…

Robust estimators for linear regression require non-convex objective functions to shield against adverse affects of outliers. This non-convexity brings challenges, particularly when combined with penalization in high-dimensional settings.…

In this paper, we propose a covariate-adjusted nonlinear regression model. In this model, both the response and predictors can only be observed after being distorted by some multiplicative factors. Because of nonlinearity, existing methods…

The present paper deals with a nonparametric M-estimation for right censored regression model with stationary ergodic data. Defined as an implicit function, a kernel type estimator of a family of robust regression is considered when the…

Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…

We propose leave-out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many regressors. An…

The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…

We consider estimation of high-dimensional long-run covariance matrices for time series with nonconstant means, a setting in which conventional estimators can be severely biased. To address this difficulty, we propose a difference-based…

High dimensional Vector Autoregressions (VAR) have received a lot of interest recently due to novel applications in health, engineering, finance and the social sciences. Three issues arise when analyzing VAR's: (a) The high dimensional…

Predicting public transit incident duration from unstructured text alerts is a critical but challenging task. Addressing the domain sparsity of transit operations with standard Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is difficult, as the task involves…

A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is introduced. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex networked system. This new formulation allows…

Empirical likelihood serves as a powerful tool for constructing confidence intervals in nonparametric regression and regression discontinuity designs (RDD). The original empirical likelihood framework can be naturally extended to these…

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…