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Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Laura Lützow , Simone Garatti , Marco C. Campi , Lars Lindemann , Matthias Althoff

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

It is common in machine learning to estimate a response $y$ given covariate information $x$. However, these predictions alone do not quantify any uncertainty associated with said predictions. One way to overcome this deficiency is with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Chancellor Johnstone , Eugene Ndiaye

We propose conformal hyperrectangular prediction regions for multi-target regression. We propose split conformal prediction algorithms for both point and quantile regression to form hyperrectangular prediction regions, which allow for easy…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-10 Max Sampson , Kung-Sik Chan

Before delegating a task to an autonomous system, a human operator may want a guarantee about the behavior of the system. This paper extends previous work on conformal prediction for functional data and conformalized quantile regression to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Thomas G. Dietterich , Jesse Hostetler

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets. While popular variants such as CD-split improve CP's efficiency, they often yield prediction sets composed of multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-29 Mingyi Zheng , Hongyu Jiang , Yizhou Lu , Jiaye Teng

Sparse methods are the standard approach to obtain interpretable models with high prediction accuracy. Alternatively, algorithmic ensemble methods can achieve higher prediction accuracy at the cost of loss of interpretability. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Anthony Christidis , Stefan Van Aelst , Ruben Zamar

It is widely believed that the prediction accuracy of decision tree models is invariant under any strictly monotone transformation of the individual predictor variables. However, this statement may be false when predicting new observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-16 Tal Galili , Isaac Meilijson

Neural networks are among the most powerful nonlinear models used to address supervised learning problems. Similar to most machine learning algorithms, neural networks produce point predictions and do not provide any prediction interval…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-01 Saeed Khaki , Dan Nettleton

This paper introduces multimodal conformal regression. Traditionally confined to scenarios with solely numerical input features, conformal prediction is now extended to multimodal contexts through our methodology, which harnesses internal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Alexis Bose , Jonathan Ethier , Paul Guinand

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Conformal prediction can be used to construct prediction sets that cover the true outcome with a desired probability, but can sometimes lead to large prediction sets that are costly in practice. The most useful outcome is a singleton…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Tao Wang , Yan Sun , Edgar Dobriban

We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Jerzy Wieczorek

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-20 Sophia Sun , Rose Yu