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Calibration of large-scale differential equation models to observational or experimental data is a widespread challenge throughout applied sciences and engineering. A crucial bottleneck in state-of-the art calibration methods is the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Jon Cockayne , Andrew B. Duncan

A reasonable description of the degradation process is essential for credible reliability assessment in accelerated degradation testing. Existing methods usually use Markovian stochastic processes to describe the degradation process.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-12 Shi-Shun Chen , Xiao-Yang Li , Wenrui Xie

We introduce a distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to infer the inverse covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional Gaussian random vector from $n$ independent samples. The proposed model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-21 Viet Anh Nguyen , Daniel Kuhn , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-28 Taylor Smith , Andreas Morr , Christof Schötz , Niklas Boers

We introduce a computationally efficient and accurate reduced order modelling approach for the optimization of spatiotemporally chaotic systems. The proposed method combines quantized local reduced order modelling with adjoint-based…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-10 Defne E. Ozan , Antonio Colanera , Luca Magri

Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-27 Tengyuan Liang , Weijie Su

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling algorithm exploits Hamiltonian dynamics to construct efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which has become increasingly popular in machine learning and statistics. Since HMC uses the gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minghao Gu , Shiliang Sun

While many distributed optimization algorithms have been proposed for solving smooth or convex problems over the networks, few of them can handle non-convex and non-smooth problems. Based on a proximal primal-dual approach, this paper…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-01 Zhiguo Wang , Jiawei Zhang , Tsung-Hui Chang , Jian Li , Zhi-Quan Luo

Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-14 Ludovico Theo Giorgini , Andre N. Souza , Peter J. Schmid

Many living and complex systems exhibit second order emergent dynamics. Limited experimental access to the configurational degrees of freedom results in data that appears to be generated by a non-Markovian process. This poses a challenge in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-29 Federica Ferretti , Victor Chardès , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak , Irene Giardina

In this paper, we study an ordinary differential equation with a degenerate global attractor at the origin, to which we add a white noise with a small parameter that regulates its intensity. Under general conditions, for any fixed…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Gerardo Barrera , Conrado da Costa , Milton Jara

In this work, an innovative data-driven moving horizon state estimation is proposed for model dynamic-unknown systems based on Bayesian optimization. As long as the measurement data is received, a locally linear dynamics model can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-14 Qing Sun , Shuai Niu , Minrui Fei

Estimation and inference with modern longitudinal data from wearable devices, which consist of biological signals at high-frequency time points, is burdened by massive computational costs. We propose a distributed estimation and inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Cole Manschot , Emily C. Hector

In this paper, we propose a randomized accelerated method for the minimization of a strongly convex function under linear constraints. The method is of Kaczmarz-type, i.e. it only uses a single linear equation in each iteration. To obtain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-03 Lionel Tondji , Dirk A. Lorenz , Ion Necoara

In the first part of the paper we consider accelerated first order optimization method for convex functions with $L$-Lipschitz-continuous gradient, that is able to automatically adapts to problems which satisfies Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Nazarii Tupitsa

Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving, yet uncertainty in agent behavior and perception noise makes it inherently challenging. While multi-modal trajectory prediction models generate multiple plausible future…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Sajad Marvi , Christoph Rist , Julian Schmidt , Julian Jordan , Abhinav Valada

Joint space trajectory optimization under end-effector task constraints leads to a challenging non-convex problem. Thus, a real-time adaptation of prior computed trajectories to perturbation in task constraints often becomes intractable.…

We show how Jarzynski relation can be exploited to analyze the nature of order-disorder and a bifurcation type dynamical transition in terms of a response function derived on the basis of work distribution over non-equilibrium paths between…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2015-06-05 Pulak Kumar Ghosh , Deb Shankar Ray

This paper considers the problem of remote state estimation for Markov jump linear systems in the presence of uncertainty in the posterior mode probabilities. Such uncertainty may arise when the estimator receives noisy or incomplete…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-05 Ioannis Tzortzis , Themistoklis Charalambous , Charalambos D. Charalambous

As written by statistician George Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful", standard diffusion derivation or Feynman path ensembles use nonphysical infinite velocity/kinetic energy nowhere differentiable trajectories - what seems…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-23 Jarek Duda