Related papers: Estimating the effective reproduction number for h…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
Monitoring the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical societal stake that received considerable research efforts. The intensity of the pandemic on a given territory is efficiently measured by the reproduction number, quantifying the rate…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…
In this paper, we propose an SIR spread model in a population network coupled with an infrastructure network that has a pathogen spreading in it. We develop a threshold condition to characterize the monotonicity and peak time of a weighted…
This paper describes a mathematical model for the spread of a virus through an isolated population of a given size. The model uses three, color-coded components, called molecules (red for infected and still contagious; green for infected,…
Discrete distributions derived from renewal processes, ie distributions of the number of events by some time t are beginning to be used in econometrics and health sciences. A new fast method is presented for computation of the probabilities…
Statistical evaluation aims to estimate the generalization performance of a model using held-out i.i.d.\ test data sampled from the ground-truth distribution. In supervised learning settings such as classification, performance metrics such…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
We consider a stochastic model of infection spread on the complete graph on $N$ vertices incorporating dynamic partnerships, which we assume to be monogamous. This can be seen as a variation on the contact process in which some form of edge…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, different countries, regions, and communities constructed various epidemic models to evaluate spreading behaviors and assist in making mitigation policies. Model uncertainties, introduced by complex…
We propose a function-valued evaluation metric for generative models based on the relative density ratio (RDR) designed to characterize distributional differences between real and generated samples. As an evaluation metric, the RDR function…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…
In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…
In this work, we have developed a Coxian distributed SEIR model in incorporating an empirical incubation period. We show that the global dynamics are completely determined by a basic reproduction number. An application of the Coxian…
With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…