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Selecting the number of regimes in Hidden Markov models is an important problem. There are many criteria that are used to select this number, such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), integrated…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Bouchra R Nasri , Bruno N Rémillard , Mamadou Y Thioub

We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-01 Niall M. Mangan , J. Nathan Kutz , Steven L. Brunton , Joshua L. Proctor

In model selection literature, two classes of criteria perform well asymptotically in different situations: Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (as a representative) is consistent in selection when the true model is finite dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-03 Wei Liu , Yuhong Yang

Using various latest cosmological datasets including Type-Ia supernovae, cosmic microwave background radiation, baryon acoustic oscillations, and estimations of the Hubble parameter, we test some dark energy models with parameterized…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-28 Jing Yang , Xin-Yan Fan , Chao-Jun Feng , Xiang-Hua Zhai

Linear mixed effects models are highly flexible in handling a broad range of data types and are therefore widely used in applications. A key part in the analysis of data is model selection, which often aims to choose a parsimonious model…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-12 Samuel Müller , J. L. Scealy , A. H. Welsh

Model selection aims to determine which theoretical models are most plausible given some data, without necessarily asking about the preferred values of the model parameters. A common model selection question is to ask when new data require…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Andrew R. Liddle , Pia Mukherjee , David Parkinson

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a model selection criterion widely used in practical applications. The AIC is an estimator of the log-likelihood expected value, and measures the discrepancy between the true model and the estimated…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-03 Fábio M. Bayer , Francisco Cribari-Neto

While Bayesian model selection is a useful tool to discriminate between competing cosmological models, it only gives a relative rather than an absolute measure of how good a model is. Bayesian doubt introduces an unknown benchmark model…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-17 M. C. March , G. D. Starkman , R. Trotta , P. M. Vaudrevange

Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Roberto Trotta

The paper obtains analytical results for the asymptotic properties of Model Selection Criteria -- widely used in practice -- for a general family of hidden Markov models (HMMs), thereby substantially extending the related theory beyond…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Shouto Yonekura , Alexandros Beskos , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Robust model-fitting to spectroscopic transitions is a requirement across many fields of science. The corrected Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AICc and BIC) are most frequently used to select the optimal number of fitting…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-11-25 John K. Webb , Chung-Chi Lee , Robert F. Carswell , Dinko Milaković

We study a generic class of time-evolving vacuum models which can provide a better phenomenological account of the overall cosmological observations as compared to the $\Lambda$CDM. Among these models, the running vacuum model (RVM) appears…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-07-27 Joan Sola Peracaula , Javier de Cruz Perez , Adria Gomez-Valent

Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC; Watanabe, 2010) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) are two fully Bayesian model selection methods that have been shown to perform better than other traditional information-criterion based…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-27 Luo Yong

Dynamical systems techniques are a powerful tool to analyse systems of ordinary differential equations, written in an appropriate form. For a given theory of gravity, the cosmological field equations typically lead to a system of ordinary…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-05-13 Christian G. Boehmer , Antonio d'Alfonso del Sordo

The DESI Collaboration reports a significant preference for a dynamic dark energy model ($w_0w_a$CDM) over the cosmological constant ($\Lambda$CDM) when their data are combined with other frontier cosmological probes. We present a direct…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-13 Dily Duan Yi Ong , David Yallup , Will Handley

Model selection is of fundamental importance to high dimensional modeling featured in many contemporary applications. Classical principles of model selection include the Kullback-Leibler divergence principle and the Bayesian principle,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-12 Jinchi Lv , Jun S. Liu

The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

We make a comparison for thirteen dark energy (DE) models by using current cosmological observations, including type Ia supernova, baryon acoustic oscillations, and cosmic microwave background. To perform a systematic and comprehensive…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-07-20 Sixiang Wen , Shuang Wang , Xiaolin Luo

Model-based component-wise gradient boosting is a popular tool for data-driven variable selection. In order to improve its prediction and selection qualities even further, several modifications of the original algorithm have been developed,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-28 Sophie Potts , Elisabeth Bergherr , Constantin Reinke , Colin Griesbach