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Related papers: Antigenic waves of virus-immune co-evolution

200 papers

Chronic viral infections can persist in an infected person for decades. From the perspective of the virus, a single infection can span thousands of generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-30 Dmitry Gromov , Ethan O. Romero-Severson

The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter $R_0$, whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, $R_0$ may change over…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-07 Xiyun Zhang , Zhongyuan Ruan , Muhua Zheng , Jie Zhou , Stefano Boccaletti , Baruch Barzel

In temperate regions, respiratory virus epidemics recur on a yearly basis, primarily during the winter season. This is believed to be induced by seasonal forcing, where the rate at which the virus can be transmitted varies cyclically across…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-28 Ruarai J Tobin , James M McCaw , Freya M Shearer

Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-09 Sudam Surasinghe , Ketty Kabengele , Paul E. Turner , C. Brandon Ogbunugafor

Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-02-07 Alberto Aleta , Andreia N. S. Hisi , Sandro Meloni , Chiara Poletto , Vittoria Colizza , Yamir Moreno

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, as well as antigenic changes that reduce the cross-immunity…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-20 Matthijs Meijers , Denis Ruchnewitz , Marta Łuksza , Michael Lässig

An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-18 Thomas Parr , Anjali Bhat , Peter Zeidman , Aimee Goel , Alexander J. Billig , Rosalyn Moran , Karl J. Friston

One important feature of the mammalian immune system is the highly specific binding of antigens to antibodies. Antibodies generated in response to one infection may also provide some level of cross immunity to other infections. One model to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-08-01 James Moore , Hasan Ahmed

One strategy for winning a coevolutionary struggle is to evolve rapidly. Most of the literature on host-pathogen coevolution focuses on this phenomenon, and looks for consequent evidence of coevolutionary arms races. An alternative…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-17 Erick Chastain , Rustom Antia , Carl T. Bergstrom

Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…

One strategy for winning a coevolutionary struggle is to evolve rapidly. Most of the literature on host-pathogen coevolution focuses on this phenomenon, and looks for consequent evidence of coevolutionary arms races. An alternative…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-11-14 Erick Chastain , Rustom Antia , Carl T. Bergstrom

Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-14 Andrew J. Holbrook , Xiang Ji , Marc A. Suchard

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to numerous articles from different scientific fields (epidemiology, virology, immunology, airflow physics...) without any effort to link these different insights. In this review, we aim to establish…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-01-31 Florian Poydenot , Alice Lebreton , Jacques Haiech , Bruno Andreotti

The cellular adaptive immune response plays a key role in resolving influenza infection. Experiments where individuals are successively infected with different strains within a short timeframe provide insight into the underlying viral…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-11-24 Ada W. C. Yan , Pengxing Cao , Jane M. Heffernan , Jodie McVernon , Kylie M. Quinn , Nicole L. La Gruta , Karen L. Laurie , James M. McCaw

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-23 David J. D. Earn , Todd L. Parsons

A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-10-05 A. Noviello , F. Romeo , R. De Luca

There is a pressing need to better understand how microbial populations respond to antimicrobial drugs, and to find mechanisms to possibly eradicate antimicrobial-resistant cells. The inactivation of antimicrobials by resistant microbes can…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-16 Lluís Hernández-Navarro , Matthew Asker , Alastair M. Rucklidge , Mauro Mobilia

The design of protocols to suppress the propagation of viral infections is an enduring enterprise, especially hindered by limited knowledge of the mechanisms through which extinction of infection propagation comes about. We here report on a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-02-18 Jose A. Cuesta , Jacobo Aguirre , Jose A. Capitan , Susanna C. Manrubia

The theory of life history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in both epidemic and endemic situations. This framework, however, relies on the assumption that pathogen populations are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-28 Todd Parsons , Amaury Lambert , Troy Day , Sylvain Gandon

We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Eliana Fausti , Andreas Sojmark