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Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. When applied to state space models, it moves a…
We consider the class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMP), whose state space is $\R\_{+}^{*}$, that possess an increasing deterministic motion and that shrink deterministically when they jump. Well known examples for this…
We consider the linear programming approach for constrained and unconstrained Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the long-run average cost criterion, where the class of MDPs in our study have Borel state spaces and discrete countable…
We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into…
We consider Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) with a finite set of discrete states. In the regime of fast jumps between discrete states, we prove a law of large number and a large deviation principle. In the regime of fast…
Many chemical reactions and molecular processes occur on timescales that are significantly longer than those accessible by direct simulation. One successful approach to estimating dynamical statistics for such processes is to use many short…
We consider the pricing of derivatives written on accumulated marks, such as weather derivatives or aggregate loss claims, using a self-exciting marked point process. The jump intensity mean-reverts between events and increases at jump…
Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process…
This paper considers differential problems with random switching, with specific applications to the motion of cells and centrally coordinated motion. Starting with a differential-equation model of cell motion that was proposed previously,…
Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…
We present metrics for measuring state similarity in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with infinitely many states, including MDPs with continuous state spaces. Such metrics provide a stable quantitative analogue of the notion of…
The classic semi-Markov disability model is expanded with individual and collective health claims to improve its explanatory and predictive power -- in particular in the context of group experience rating. The inclusion of collective health…
We establish a recursive representation that fully decouples jumps from a large class of multivariate inhomogeneous stochastic differential equations with jumps of general time-state dependent unbounded intensity, not of L\'evy-driven type…
We develop a general method for extending Markov processes to a larger state space such that the added points form a polar set. The so obtained extension is an improvement on the standard trivial extension in which case the process is made…
This paper discusses tractable development and statistical estimation of a continuous time stochastic process with a finite state space having non-Markov property. The process is formed by a finite mixture of right-continuous Markov jump…
Up to now, the nonparametric analysis of multidimensional continuous-time Markov processes has focussed strongly on specific model choices, mostly related to symmetry of the semigroup. While this approach allows to study the performance of…
We study the solution $V$ of the Poisson equation $LV + f=0$ where $L$ is the backward generator of an irreducible (finite) Markov jump process and $f$ is a given centered state function. Bounds on $V$ are obtained using a graphical…
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the…
In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…
In this paper, we consider a continuous-time Markov decision process (CTMDP) in Borel spaces, where the certainty equivalent with respect to the exponential utility of the total undiscounted cost is to be minimized. The cost rate is…