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The slow processes of metastable stochastic dynamical systems are difficult to access by direct numerical simulation due the sampling problem. Here, we suggest an approach for modeling the slow parts of Markov processes by approximating the…

In this paper the numerical approximation of solutions of Liouville-Master Equations for time-dependent distribution functions of Piecewise Deterministic Processes with memory is considered. These equations are linear hyperbolic PDEs with…

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

We study discrete-time discounted constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) on Borel spaces with unbounded reward functions. In our approach the transition probability functions are weakly or set-wise continuous. The reward functions…

We extend the Dirichlet principle to non-reversible Markov processes on countable state spaces. We present two variational formulas for the solution of the Poisson equation or, equivalently, for the capacity between two disjoint sets. As an…

Advances in sampling schemes for Markov jump processes have recently enabled multiple inferential tasks. However, in statistical and machine learning applications, we often require that these continuous-time models find support on…

Diffusive approximations of Markov jump processes often fail to accurately capture large fluctuations. This is confounding, as the rare events triggered by these large fluctuations, such as the failure of electronic memories, are often the…

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes (MJPs) where available observations relate to either system states or jumps typically relies on data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo. State-of-the-art developments involve representing MJP…

In this paper we model basketball plays as episodes from team-specific non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) with shot clock dependent transition probabilities. Bayesian hierarchical models are employed in the modeling and…

In this paper we study backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven by the compensated random measure associated to a given pure jump Markov process X on a general state space K. We apply these results to prove well-posedness…

Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…

We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…

Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on…

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes combine continuous in time dynamics with jump events, the rates of which generally depend on the continuous variables and thus are not constants. This leads to a problem in a Monte-Carlo simulation…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

The purpose of this paper is to consider the exit-time problem for a finite-range Markov jump process, i.e, the distance the particle can jump is bounded independent of its location. Such jump diffusions are expedient models for anomalous…

We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…

In this paper, we consider a subclass of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with a Polish state space that involve a deterministic motion punctuated by random jumps, occurring in a Poisson-like fashion with some state-dependent rate,…

Delays are ubiquitous in applied problems, but often do not arise as the simple constant discrete delays that analysts and numerical analysts like to treat. In this chapter we show how state-dependent delays arise naturally when modeling…

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control…