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To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-03 Miguel A. Cajahuanca Ricaldi , Yaroslav Ispolatov

A key characteristic of the spread of infectious diseases is their ability to use efficient transmission paths within contact graphs. This enables the pathogen to maximise infection rates and spread within a target population. In this work,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Shishir Nagaraja

Digital contact tracing plays a crucial role in alleviating an outbreak, and designing multilevel digital contact tracing for a country is an open problem due to the analysis of large volumes of temporal contact data. We develop a…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Gautam Mahapatra , Priodyuti Pradhan , Abhinandan Khan , Sanjit Kumar Setua , Rajat Kumar Pal , Ayush Rathor

In response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), governments have introduced severe policy measures with substantial effects on human behavior. Here, we perform a large-scale, spatio-temporal analysis of human mobility during the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-08 Joel Persson , Jurriaan F. Parie , Stefan Feuerriegel

The robustness of human social networks against epidemic propagation relies on the propensity for physical contact adaptation. During the early phase of infection, asymptomatic carriers exhibit the same activity level as susceptible…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Masoumeh Moradian , Aresh Dadlani , Rasul Kairgeldin , Ahmad Khonsari

During the COVID-19 pandemic, different countries, regions, and communities constructed various epidemic models to evaluate spreading behaviors and assist in making mitigation policies. Model uncertainties, introduced by complex…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-06-23 Baike She , Rebecca Lee Smith , Ian Pytlarz , Shreyas Sundaram , Philip E. Paré

The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-18 G. Albi , L. Pareschi , M. Zanella

Human behaviour strongly influences the spread of infectious diseases: understanding the interplay between epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviours is essential to improve response strategies to epidemics, with the goal of containing the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-21 Marco Mancastroppa , Alessandro Vezzani , Vittoria Colizza , Raffaella Burioni

A significant limitation of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is the stochastic uncertainty in actions generated during exploration-exploitation, which poses substantial safety risks during both training and deployment. In industrial…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-17 Runze Lin , Ziqi Zhuo , Junghui Chen , Lei Xie , Hongye Su

National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-27 Arash Saeidpour , Pejman Rohani

Severe acute respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 has had a found impact on public health systems and healthcare emergency response especially with respect to making decisions on the most effective measures to be taken at any given time. As…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Charithea Stylianides , Kleanthis Malialis , Panayiotis Kolios

Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…

We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-02 Satoshi Fukuda , Nenad Kos , Christoph Wolf

Acute infectious diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Epidemic models are used to predict the spread of emergent pathogens and compare intervention strategies. Many of these models assume equal probability of contact…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-25 Gail E. Potter , Niel Hens

Digital contact tracing apps for COVID, such as the one developed by Google and Apple, need to estimate the risk that a user was infected during a particular exposure, in order to decide whether to notify the user to take precautions, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Kevin Murphy , Abhishek Kumar , Stylianos Serghiou

We study the epidemic source detection problem in contact tracing networks modeled as a graph-constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem using the susceptible-infected model in epidemiology. Based on a snapshot observation of the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-02-28 Pei-Duo Yu , Chee Wei Tan , Hung-Lin Fu

The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…

Efficient personnel scheduling plays a significant role in matching workload demand in organizations. However, staff scheduling is sometimes affected by unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, that disrupt regular operations.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-10 Mansoor Davoodi , Ana Batista , Abhishek Senapati , Justin M. Calabrese

In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-22 Andrea Maiorana , Marco Meneghelli , Mario Resnati

Residential colleges and universities face unique challenges in providing in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Administrators are currently faced with decisions about whether to open during the pandemic and what modifications…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-22 Philip T. Gressman , Jennifer R. Peck