Related papers: The future of forecasting competitions: Design att…

Data competitions have become a popular approach to crowdsource new data analysis methods for general and specialized data science problems. In plant phenotyping, data competitions have a rich history, and new outdoor field datasets have…

Because the decathlon tests many facets of athleticism, including sprinting, throwing, jumping, and endurance, many consider it to be the ultimate test of athletic ability. On this view, estimating the maximal decathlon score and…

Hackathons are time-bounded collaborative events which have become a global phenomenon adopted by both researchers and practitioners in a plethora of contexts. Hackathon events are generally used to accelerate the development of, for…

Judgmental forecasting employs human opinions to make predictions about future events, rather than exclusively historical data as in quantitative forecasting. When these opinions form an argumentative structure around forecasts, it is…

As the use of algorithmic systems in high-stakes decision-making increases, the ability to contest algorithmic decisions is being recognised as an important safeguard for individuals. Yet, there is little guidance on what…

I study optimal disclosure policies in sequential contests. A contest designer chooses at which periods to publicly disclose the efforts of previous contestants. I provide results for a wide range of possible objectives for the contest…

The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the…

Machine learning is often used in competitive scenarios: Participants learn and fit static models, and those models compete in a shared platform. The common assumption is that in order to win a competition one has to have the best…

Prediction is a well-studied machine learning task, and prediction algorithms are core ingredients in online products and services. Despite their centrality in the competition between online companies who offer prediction-based products,…

In recent days, the number of technology enthusiasts is increasing day by day with the prevalence of technological products and easy access to the internet. Similarly, the amount of people working behind this rapid development is rising…

Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by…

Prediction capability is considered an important issue in response surface methodology. Following the line of argument that a design should have several desirable properties we have extended an existing compound design criterion to include…

Survival analysis deals with modeling the time until an event occurs, and accurate probability estimates are crucial for decision-making, particularly in the competing-risks setting where multiple events are possible. While recent work has…

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the…

Genetic algorithms, computer programs that simulate natural evolution, are increasingly applied across many disciplines. They have been used to solve various optimisation problems from neural network architecture search to strategic games,…

This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the pragmatic aspects involved in organizing AI competitions. We begin by discussing strategies to incentivize participation, touching upon effective communication techniques, aligning with…

Solver competitions play a prominent role in assessing and advancing the state of the art for solving many problems in AI and beyond. Notably, in many areas of AI, competitions have had substantial impact in guiding research and…

Aspects of operational modeling for climate, weather, and space weather forecasts are contrasted, with a particular focus on the somewhat conflicting demands of 'operational stability' versus 'dynamic development' of the involved models.…

Patterns embody repeating phenomena, and, as such, they are partly but not fully detachable from their context. 'Design patterns' and 'pattern languages' are established methods for working with patterns. They have been applied in…