Related papers: Using Gaussian Processes to Design Dynamic Experim…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical…

Digital twins are developed to model the behavior of a specific physical asset (or twin), and they can consist of high-fidelity physics-based models or surrogates. A highly accurate surrogate is often preferred over multi-physics models as…

Machine learning models play a vital role in time series forecasting. These models, however, often overlook an important element: point uncertainty estimates. Incorporating these estimates is crucial for effective risk management, informed…

Polynomial chaos and Gaussian process emulation are methods for surrogate-based uncertainty quantification, and have been developed independently in their respective communities over the last 25 years. Despite tackling similar problems in…

Engineering disciplines often rely on extensive simulations to ensure that structures are designed to withstand harsh conditions while avoiding over-engineering for unlikely scenarios. Assessments such as Serviceability Limit State (SLS)…

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…

Active learning of Gaussian process (GP) surrogates has been useful for optimizing experimental designs for physical/computer simulation experiments, and for steering data acquisition schemes in machine learning. In this paper, we develop a…

We propose a novel method for gradient-based optimization of black-box simulators using differentiable local surrogate models. In fields such as physics and engineering, many processes are modeled with non-differentiable simulators with…

Gaussian processes (GPs) enable principled computation of model uncertainty, making them attractive for safety-critical applications. Such scenarios demand that GP decisions are not only accurate, but also robust to perturbations. In this…

Differential equations are important mechanistic models that are integral to many scientific and engineering applications. With the abundance of available data there has been a growing interest in data-driven physics-informed models.…

We propose a new uncertainty estimator for gradient-free optimisation of black-box simulators using deep generative surrogate models. Optimisation of these simulators is especially challenging for stochastic simulators and higher…

Data-driven Model Predictive Control (MPC), where the system model is learned from data with machine learning, has recently gained increasing interests in the control community. Gaussian Processes (GP), as a type of statistical models, are…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are instrumental in modeling spatial processes, offering precise interpolation and prediction capabilities across fields such as environmental science and biology. Recently, there has been growing interest in…

Gaussian Process (GP) models have also become extremely useful for optimization under uncertainty algorithms, especially where the objective functions are costly to compute. Yet, the more classical methods usually adopt strategies that, in…

The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these…