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As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to put a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide, there has been growing interest in finding inexpensive symptom pre-screening and recommendation methods to assist in efficiently using available…
In the break of COVID-19 pandemic, mass testing has become essential to reduce the spread of the virus. Several recent studies suggest that a significant number of COVID-19 patients display no physical symptoms whatsoever. Therefore, it is…
We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model…
This paper seeks to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic based on daily published data from Worldometer website, using a time-dependent SIR model. Our findings indicate that this model fits well such data, for different chosen…
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…
We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…
Despite the widespread testing protocols for COVID-19, there are still significant challenges in early detection of the disease, which is crucial for preventing its spread and optimizing patient outcomes. Owing to the limited testing…
The SIQR model is reformulated where compartments for infected and quarantined are redefined so as to be appropriate to COVID-19, and exact properties of the model are presented. It is shown that the maximum number of infected at large…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
Restarting public buildings activities in the "second phase" of COVID-19 emergency should be supported by operational measures to avoid a second virus spreading. Buildings hosting the continuous presence of the same users and significant…
We present a timely and novel methodology that combines disease estimates from mechanistic models with digital traces, via interpretable machine-learning methodologies, to reliably forecast COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces in…
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…
Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important for organizations to evaluate the efficacy of interventions aiming at…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is known as the causative virus of outbreak pneumonia initially recognized in the mainland of China, late December 2019. COVID-19 reaches out to many countries in the world, and the number of daily…
There are several reports in India that indicate hospitals and quarantined centers are COVID-19 hotspots. In the absence of efficient contact tracing tools, Govt. and the policymakers may not be paying attention to the risk of…
Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…
Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…
We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. Our context is an effort…