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We consider the modeling of data generated by a latent continuous-time Markov jump process with a state space of finite but unknown dimensions. Typically in such models, the number of states has to be pre-specified, and Bayesian inference…
Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease increasing dramatically over the past years due to improvement in human mobility. The movement of host individuals between and within the patches are captured via a residence-time matrix. A system of…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We consider a Spatial Markov Chain model for the spread of viruses. The model is based on the principle to represent a graph connecting nodes, which represent humans. The vertices between the nodes represent relations between humans. In…
Many epidemic processes in networks spread by stochastic contacts among their connected vertices. There are two limiting cases widely analyzed in the physics literature, the so-called contact process (CP) where the contagion is expanded at…
Dengue remains one of Brazil's major epidemiological challenges, marked by strong intra-urban inequalities and the influence of climatic and socio-environmental factors. This study analyzed confirmed dengue cases in Recife from 2015 to 2024…
Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…
To investigate interactions between parasite species in a host, a population of field voles was studied longitudinally, with presence or absence of six different parasites measured repeatedly. Although trapping sessions were regular, a…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
This paper aims to extend the Besag model, a widely used Bayesian spatial model in disease mapping, to a non-stationary spatial model for irregular lattice-type data. The goal is to improve the model's ability to capture complex spatial…
We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, like dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed by two structures representing the human and mosquito…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
The effective control of infectious diseases relies on accurate assessment of the impact of interventions, which is often hindered by the complex dynamics of the spread of disease. A Beta-Dirichlet switching state-space transmission model…
A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations.…
As offered by the World Health Organisation (WHO), close to half of the population in the world's resides in dengue-risk zones. Dengue viruses are transmitted to individuals by Aedes mosquito species infected bite (Ae. Albopictus of Ae.…
In this paper, we model a nonlinear dynamics of infectious diseases transfer. Particularly, we study possible applications to tubercular infection in models with different profiles (peak values) of the population density dependence on…
In this paper we propose some mathematical models for the transmission of dengue using a system of reaction-diffusion equations. The mosquitoes are divided into infected, uninfected and aquatic subpopulations, while the humans, which are…
In this paper, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (roadway segments) can switch between these…