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Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-15 Azaden Khaleghi , Daniil Ryabko

Particle accelerators are complex facilities that produce large amounts of structured data and have clear optimization goals as well as precisely defined control requirements. As such they are naturally amenable to data-driven research…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Sichen Li , Andreas Adelmann

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series…

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is an important problem across various fields such as healthcare, financial services, manufacturing or physics detector monitoring. Accurately identifying when unexpected errors or faults occur…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Laura Boggia , Rafael Teixeira de Lima , Bogdan Malaescu

We introduce circulance, a scalar measure for classifying time series of dynamical systems. Circulance captures the extent of temporal regularity or irregularity that is encoded in the topology of a directed ordinal pattern transition…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-05 Max Potratzki , Manuel Adams , Timo Bröhl , Klaus Lehnertz

Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-13 Azadeh Khaleghi , Daniil Ryabko

Early Time-Series Classification (ETSC) is the task of predicting the class of incoming time-series by observing as few measurements as possible. Such methods can be employed to obtain classification forecasts in many time-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-04 Charilaos Akasiadis , Evgenios Kladis , Evangelos Michelioudakis , Elias Alevizos , Alexander Artikis

In many situations, the measurements of a studied phenomenon are provided sequentially, and the prediction of its class needs to be made as early as possible so as not to incur too high a time penalty, but not too early and risk paying the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Aurélien Renault , Alexis Bondu , Antoine Cornuéjols , Vincent Lemaire

In this work, we propose a model-agnostic instance-based post-hoc explainability method for time series classification. The proposed algorithm, namely Time-CF, leverages shapelets and TimeGAN to provide counterfactual explanations for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Qi Huang , Wei Chen , Thomas Bäck , Niki van Stein

Representation learning plays a critical role in the analysis of time series data and has high practical value across a wide range of applications. including trend analysis, time series data retrieval and forecasting. In practice, data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Chengyang Ye , Qiang Ma

The presence of smart objects is increasingly widespread and their ecosystem, also known as Internet of Things, is relevant in many different application scenarios. The huge amount of temporally annotated data produced by these smart…

Databases · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Giacomo Chiarot , Claudio Silvestri

Pattern recognition constitutes a particularly important task underlying a great deal of scientific and technologica activities. At the same time, pattern recognition involves several challenges, including the choice of features to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Alexandre Benatti , Luciano da F. Costa

The proliferation and ubiquity of temporal data across many disciplines has sparked interest for similarity, classification and clustering methods specifically designed to handle time series data. A core issue when dealing with time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Iñigo Martinez

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Qingsong Wen , Tian Zhou , Chaoli Zhang , Weiqi Chen , Ziqing Ma , Junchi Yan , Liang Sun

Most time series observed in practice exhibit time-varying trend (first-order) and autocovariance (second-order) behaviour. Differencing is a commonly-used technique to remove the trend in such series, in order to estimate the time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Euan T. McGonigle , Rebecca Killick , Matthew A. Nunes

This paper introduces a novel uncertainty quantification framework for regression models where the response takes values in a separable metric space, and the predictors are in a Euclidean space. The proposed algorithms can efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

As a new method for detecting change-points in high-resolution time series, we apply Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the distributions of ordinal patterns in different parts of a time series. The main advantage of this approach is its…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Mathieu Sinn , Ali Ghodsi , Karsten Keller

The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording, and analyzing the dynamics of different processes,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-23 Ben D. Fulcher , Max A. Little , Nick S. Jones

While Internet of Things (IoT) devices and sensors create continuous streams of information, Big Data infrastructures are deemed to handle the influx of data in real-time. One type of such a continuous stream of information is time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-05 Elyas Sabeti , Peter X. K. Song , Alfred O. Hero