Related papers: Dynamic modeling of mortality via mixtures of skew…
In this paper authors present a general methodology for age dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing systems, structures and components.The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference, its ability to incorporate…
Compared to mean regression and quantile regression, the literature on modal regression is very sparse. A unifying framework for Bayesian modal regression is proposed, based on a family of unimodal distributions indexed by the mode, along…
A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…
We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…
Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…
This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…
The mean residual life function is a key functional for a survival distribution. It has a practically useful interpretation as the expected remaining lifetime given survival up to a particular time point, and it also characterizes the…
Illness-death models are a class of stochastic models inside the multi-state framework. In those models, individuals are allowed to move over time between different states related to illness and death. They are of special interest when…
A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…
Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…
Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…
Parameter shrinkage applied optimally can always reduce error and projection variances from those of maximum likelihood estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at…
A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…
Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…
The multivariate extended skew-normal distribution allows for accommodating raw data which are skewed and heavy tailed, and has at least three appealing statistical properties, namely closure under conditioning, affine transformations, and…
We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…
Ageing's sensitivity to natural selection has long been discussed because of its apparent negative effect on individual's fitness. Thanks to the recently described (Smurf) 2-phase model of ageing we were allowed to propose a fresh angle for…
In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…