Related papers: Dynamic modeling of mortality via mixtures of skew…
There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…
Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…
Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…
This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…
Death events commonly arise from complex interactions among interrelated causes, formally classified in reporting practices as underlying and contributing. Leveraging information from death certificates, these interactions can be naturally…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…
Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…
Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…
We introduce a nonparametric bootstrap procedure based on a dynamic factor model to construct pointwise prediction intervals for period life-table death counts. The age distribution of death counts is an example of constrained data, which…
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…
We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…
Aging is thought to be a consequence of intrinsic breakdowns in how genetic information is processed. But mounting experimental evidence suggests that aging can be slowed. To help resolve this mystery, I derive a mortality equation which…
Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
We wish to verify that the mortality deceleration (or decrease) is a consequence of the bending of the shape parameter at old ages. This investigation is based upon the Weon model (the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter)…
The risk of dying increases exponentially with age, in humans as well as in many other species. This increase is often attributed to the "accumulation of damage" known to occur in many biological structures and systems. The aim of this…
Smoking is one of the preventable threats to human health and is a major risk factor for lung cancer, upper aero-digestive cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Estimating and forecasting the smoking attributable fraction (SAF)…
While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…