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Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

We present a comprehensive computational model to simulate the coupled dynamics of aqueous humor flow and heat transfer in the human eye. To manage the complexity of the model, we make significant efforts in meshing and efficient solution…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Thomas Saigre , Vincent Chabannes , Christophe Prud'Homme , Marcela Szopos

In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology for stochastic systems in chemistry, where dynamics are often governed by random processes. Our approach is based on gradient estimation via finite differences, averaging…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-12 Erika M. Herrera Machado , Jakob L. Andersen , Rolf Fagerberg , Daniel Merkle

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

Computational models are continuously integrated in the clinical space, where they support clinicians in disease diagnosis, prognosis, and prevention strategies. While assisting in clinical space, these computational models frequently use…

Medical Physics · Physics 2026-04-30 Muhammad Usman , Peter N. Castillo , Akil Narayan , Lucas H. Timmins

Stochastic simulation has been widely used to analyze the performance of complex stochastic systems and facilitate decision making in those systems. Stochastic simulation is driven by the input model, which is a collection of probability…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-14 Tianyi Liu , Enlu Zhou

Most approximations for stochastic differential equations with high-dimensional, non-Gaussian inputs suffer from a rapid (e.g., exponential) increase of computational cost, an issue known as the curse of dimensionality. In astrodynamics,…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-30 Marc Balducci , Brandon Jones , Alireza Doostan

Image-based simulation, the use of 3D images to calculate physical quantities, fundamentally relies on image segmentation to create the computational geometry. However, this process introduces image segmentation uncertainty because there is…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Michael C. Krygier , Tyler LaBonte , Carianne Martinez , Chance Norris , Krish Sharma , Lincoln N. Collins , Partha P. Mukherjee , Scott A. Roberts

Numerical models are increasingly used for non-invasive diagnosis and treatment planning in coronary artery disease, where service-based technologies have proven successful in identifying hemodynamically significant and hence potentially…

Medical Physics · Physics 2020-05-01 Jongmin Seo , Casey Fleeter , Andrew M. Kahn , Alison L. Marsden , Daniele E. Schiavazzi

In the study of gas dynamics, theoretical modeling and numerical simulation are mostly set up with deterministic settings. Given the coarse-grained modeling in theories of fluids, considerable uncertainties may exist between flow-field…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-08-07 Tianbai Xiao

An efficient, generalizable physical simulator with universal uncertainty estimates has wide applications in robot state estimation, planning, and control. In this paper, we build such a simulator for two scenarios, planar pushing and ball…

Purpose: Optical imaging is evolving as a key technique for advanced sensing in the operating room. Recent research has shown that machine learning algorithms can be used to address the inverse problem of converting pixel-wise multispectral…

A multifidelity method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in the presence of stochastic accelerations is presented. The proposed algorithm treats the uncertainty propagation (UP) problem by separating the propagation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Francesco Sanfedino

A framework is developed based on different uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques in order to assess validation and verification (V&V) metrics in computational physics problems, in general, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD), in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Saleh Rezaeiravesh , Ricardo Vinuesa , Philipp Schlatter

Humans can easily describe, imagine, and, crucially, predict a wide variety of behaviors of liquids--splashing, squirting, gushing, sloshing, soaking, dripping, draining, trickling, pooling, and pouring--despite tremendous variability in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Christopher J. Bates , Ilker Yildirim , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Peter Battaglia

When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Wei Xie , Barry L. Nelson , Russell R. Barton

Uncertainty in LiDAR measurements, stemming from factors such as range sensing, is crucial for LIO (LiDAR-Inertial Odometry) systems as it affects the accurate weighting in the loss function. While recent LIO systems address uncertainty…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Kai Huang , Junqiao Zhao , Jiaye Lin , Zhongyang Zhu , Shuangfu Song , Chen Ye , Tiantian Feng

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Kamaljit Chowdhary , Paul Dupuis

This work suggests several methods of uncertainty treatment in multiscale modelling and describes their application to a system of coupled turbulent transport simulations of a tokamak plasma. We propose a method to quantify the usually…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2023-07-10 Yehor Yudin , David Coster , Udo von Toussaint , Frank Jenko

Uncertainty estimation has been widely studied in medical image segmentation as a tool to provide reliability, particularly in deep learning approaches. However, previous methods generally lack effective supervision in uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Yuzhu Li , An Sui , Fuping Wu , Xiahai Zhuang