Related papers: Testing exchangeability: fork-convexity, supermart…
In this paper, we address the problem of testing exchangeability of a sequence of random variables, $X_1, X_2,\cdots$. This problem has been studied under the recently popular framework of testing by betting. But the mapping of testing…
On observing a sequence of i.i.d.\ data with distribution $P$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we ask the question of how one can test the null hypothesis that $P$ has a log-concave density. This paper proves one interesting negative and positive result:…
Confidence sequences, anytime p-values (called p-processes in this paper), and e-processes all enable sequential inference for composite and nonparametric classes of distributions at arbitrary stopping times. Examining the literature, one…
The topic of this paper is testing exchangeability using e-values in the batch mode, with the Markov model as alternative. The null hypothesis of exchangeability is formalized as a Kolmogorov-type compression model, and the Bayes mixture of…
The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…
We develop e-values and e-processes testing the null hypothesis that a distribution over nonnegative integers is monotone, and that a distribution over integers is unimodal given a certain mode. Our e-processes lead to tests of power one…
In this paper, we derive power guarantees of some sequential tests for bounded mean under general alternatives. We focus on testing procedures using nonnegative supermartingales which are anytime valid and consider alternatives which…
We design sequential tests for a large class of nonparametric null hypotheses based on elicitable and identifiable functionals. Such functionals are defined in terms of scoring functions and identification functions, which are ideal…
We continue study of conformal testing in binary model situations. In this note we consider Markov alternatives to the null hypothesis of exchangeability. We propose two new classes of conformal test martingales; one class is statistically…
A standard assumption in machine learning is the exchangeability of data, which is equivalent to assuming that the examples are generated from the same probability distribution independently. This paper is devoted to testing the assumption…
We establish a one-to-one correspondence between (i) exchangeable sequences of random variables whose finite-dimensional distributions are minimum (or maximum) infinitely divisible and (ii) non-negative, non-decreasing, infinitely divisible…
Let $S$ be a Polish space and $(X_n:n\geq1)$ an exchangeable sequence of $S$-valued random variables. Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in \cdot\mid X_1,\...,X_n)$ be the predictive measure and $\alpha$ a random probability measure on $S$ such…
We introduce a general Bayesian framework for graph matching grounded in a new theory of exchangeable random permutations. Leveraging the cycle representation of permutations and the literature on exchangeable random partitions, we define,…
A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building blocks are…
This work proposes a new exchangeability test for a random sequence through a martingale based approach. Its main contributions include: 1) an additive martingale which is more amenable for designing exchangeability tests by exploiting the…
E-values and E-processes (nonnegative supermartingales) provide anytime-valid evidence for sequential testing via Ville's inequality, yet their connection to Bayesian reasoning, representational structure, and computational feasibility are…
De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…
Effective versions of strong measure zero sets are developed for various levels of complexity and computability. It is shown that the sets can be equivalently defined using a generalization of supermartingales called odds supermartingales,…
We study finite-sample inference for the trade-off function of two unknown probability distributions, the function that traces the optimal type I/type II error frontier in binary testing. Given samples from distributions $P$ and $Q$, we…
Given a positive random variable $X$, $X\ge0$ a.s., a null hypothesis $H_0:E(X)\le\mu$ and a random sample of infinite size of $X$, we construct test supermartingales for $H_0$, i.e. positive processes that are supermartingale if the null…