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We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 Evan Arsenault , Yuheng Wang , Margaret P. Chapman

Though deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has obtained substantial success, it may encounter catastrophic failures due to the intrinsic uncertainty of both transition and observation. Most of the existing methods for safe reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Chengyang Ying , Xinning Zhou , Hang Su , Dong Yan , Ning Chen , Jun Zhu

This paper proposes a unified control framework based on Response-Aware Risk-Constrained Control Barrier Function for dynamic safety boundary control of vehicles. Addressing the problem of physical model parameter mismatch, the framework…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Qijun Liao , Jue Yang

This paper investigates the use of retrospective approximation solution paradigm in solving risk-averse optimization problems effectively via importance sampling (IS). While IS serves as a prominent means for tackling the large sample…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-28 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy , Tirtho Sarker

In this paper, we present a novel data-driven approach to quantify safety for non-linear, discrete-time stochastic systems with unknown noise distribution. We define safety as the probability that the system remains in a given region of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-10 Frederik Baymler Mathiesen , Licio Romao , Simeon C. Calvert , Luca Laurenti , Alessandro Abate

In real-world scenarios, risk-averse learning is valuable for mitigating potential adverse outcomes. However, the delayed feedback makes it challenging to assess and manage risk effectively. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Siyi Wang , Zifan Wang , Karl Henrik Johansson , Sandra Hirche

In this paper we study variational inequalities (VI) defined by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of uncertain functions. We introduce stochastic approximation schemes that employ an empirical estimate of the CVaR at each iteration to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-28 Jasper Verbree , Ashish Cherukuri

This paper addresses the challenge of integrating explicit hard constraints into the control barrier function (CBF) framework for ensuring safety in autonomous systems, including robots. We propose a novel data-driven method to derive CBFs…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Jaemin Lee , Jeeseop Kim , Aaron D. Ames

Scenario reduction (SR) alleviates the computational complexity of scenario-based stochastic optimization with conditional value-at-risk (SBSO-CVaR) by identifying representative scenarios to depict the underlying uncertainty and tail…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Yingrui Zhuang , Lin Cheng , Ning Qi , Mads R. Almassalkhi , Feng Liu

Several authors have recently developed risk-sensitive policy gradient methods that augment the standard expected cost minimization problem with a measure of variability in cost. These studies have focused on specific risk-measures, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-06-09 Aviv Tamar , Yinlam Chow , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Shie Mannor

Optimal portfolio allocation is often formulated as a constrained risk problem, where one aims to minimize a risk measure subject to some performance constraints. This paper presents new Bayesian Optimization algorithms for such constrained…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-25 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li

We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Jose Blanchet , Joost Jorritsma , Bert Zwart

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Jacinto Martín , M. Isabel Parra , Eva L. Sanjuán , Mario M. Pizarro

We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-04 Matthew J. Holland , El Mehdi Haress

In this paper we consider Fourier transform techniques to efficiently compute the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk of an arbitrary loss random variable, characterized by having a computable generalized characteristic…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-01 Alessandro Ramponi

Motivated by the recent interest in risk-aware control, we study a continuous-time control synthesis problem to bound the risk that a stochastic linear system violates a given specification. We use risk signal temporal logic as a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-12 Sleiman Safaoui , Lars Lindemann , Iman Shames , Tyler H. Summers

This paper presents sensitivity analyses of resilience-based active distribution system planning solutions with respect to different parameters. The distribution system planning problem is formulated as a two-stage risk-averse stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-28 Abodh Poudyal , Anamika Dubey

We treat the problem of risk-aware control for stochastic shortest path (SSP) on Markov decision processes (MDP). Typically, expectation is considered for SSP, which however is oblivious to the incurred risk. We present an alternative view,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-04 Tobias Meggendorfer

By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Dirk Tasche , Ursula Theiler

Learning-based methodologies increasingly find applications in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving and medical robotics. Due to the rare nature of dangerous events, real-world testing is prohibitively expensive and unscalable.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Aman Sinha , Matthew O'Kelly , Russ Tedrake , John Duchi
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