Related papers: Risk-sensitive safety analysis using Conditional V…
The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a ubiquitous decision-making problem that exemplifies the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. Standard formulations exclude risk in decision making. Risk notably complicates the basic reward-maximising…
In this work we want to provide a general principle to evaluate the CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) for a vulnerable option, that is an option subject to some default event, concerning the solvability of the issuer. CVA is needed to evaluate…
Planning in Markov decision processes (MDPs) typically optimises the expected cost. However, optimising the expectation does not consider the risk that for any given run of the MDP, the total cost received may be unacceptably high. An…
Risk measures for random vectors have been considered in multi-asset markets with transaction costs and financial networks in the literature. While the theory of set-valued risk measures provide an axiomatic framework for assigning to a…
With the rapid development of automated vehicles (AVs) in recent years, commercially available AVs are increasingly demonstrating high-level automation capabilities. However, most existing AV safety evaluation methods are primarily designed…
We consider finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes where parameters, such as transition probabilities, are unknown and estimated from data. The popular distributionally robust approach to addressing the parameter uncertainty can sometimes…
We study a discrete-time multi-period portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the excess of Conditional Value-at-Risk over expected terminal wealth. The…
In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance $\tau$. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is…
Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire…
Safety of stochastic dynamic systems in environments with dynamic obstacles is studied in this paper through the lens of stochastic barrier functions. We introduce both time-invariant and time-varying barrier certificates for discrete-time,…
We consider controller synthesis for stochastic and partially unknown environments in which safety is essential. Specifically, we abstract the problem as a Markov decision process in which the expected performance is measured using a cost…
We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…
Solving chance-constrained optimal control problems for systems subject to non-stationary uncertainties is a significant challenge.Conventional robust model predictive control (MPC) often yields excessive conservatism by relying on static…
We develop a stochastic approximation-type algorithm to solve finite state/action, infinite-horizon, risk-aware Markov decision processes. Our algorithm has two loops. The inner loop computes the risk by solving a stochastic saddle-point…
The widescale deployment of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) seems to be imminent despite many safety challenges that are yet to be resolved. It is well known that there are no universally agreed Verification and Validation (VV) methodologies to…
This paper addresses the design of safety certificates for stochastic systems, with a focus on ensuring long-term safety through fast real-time control. In stochastic environments, set invariance-based methods that restrict the probability…
In this paper, we consider the nonconvex minimization problem of the value-at-risk (VaR) that arises from financial risk analysis. By considering this problem as a special linear program with linear complementarity constraints (a bilevel…
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…
The wide availability of data coupled with the computational advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning promise to enable many future technologies such as autonomous driving. While there has been a variety of successful…
While Robust Model Predictive Control considers the worst-case system uncertainty, Stochastic Model Predictive Control, using chance constraints, provides less conservative solutions by allowing a certain constraint violation probability…