Related papers: COVID-19 propagation by diffusion -- a two-dimensi…

This paper introduces a novel approach to spatio-temporal data analysis using metric geometry to study the propagation of COVID-19 across the United States. Using a geodesic Wasserstein metric, we analyse discrepancies between the density…

It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

In this work, we propose a deep learning approach to forecasting state-level COVID-19 trends of weekly cumulative death in the United States (US) and incident cases in Germany. This approach includes a transformer model, an ensemble method,…

The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped human mobility through policy interventions and voluntary behavioral changes. Mobility adaptions helped mitigate pandemic spread, however our knowledge which environmental, social, and demographic factors…

We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model…

A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the…

Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…

COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the…

Since the primary mode of respiratory virus transmission is person-to-person interaction, we are required to reconsider physical interaction patterns to mitigate the number of people infected with COVID-19. While research has shown that…

The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…

This article explores the territorial differences in the onset and spread of COVID-19 and the excess mortality associated with the pandemic, across the European NUTS3 regions and US counties. Both in Europe and in the US, the pandemic…

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in…

The COVID-19 pandemic is largely caused by airborne transmission, a phenomenon that rapidly gained the attention of the scientific community. Social distancing is of paramount importance to limit the spread of the disease, but to design…

Currently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic the public life in most European countries stopped almost completely due to measures against the spread of the virus. Efforts to limit the number of new infections are threatened by the advent of new…

In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…

A fractional compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease is proposed. Special focus has been done on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. Numerical simulations are shown for data of Galicia,…

We analyze the spread of COVID-19 by considering the transmission of the disease among individuals both within and between regions. A set of regions can be defined as any partition of a population such that travel/social contact within each…

This study releases an adaptable framework that can provide insights to policymakers to predict the complex recurring waves of the pandemic in the medium postemergence of the virus spread, a phase marked by rapidly changing factors like…

In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…