Related papers: Decision Theory and Large Deviations for Dynamical…
In this paper we consider the problem of multiple testing when the hypotheses are dependent. In most of the existing literature, either Bayesian or non-Bayesian, the decision rules mainly focus on the validity of the test procedure rather…
In this article, we propose a new method for the fundamental task of testing for dependence between two groups of variables. The response densities under the null hypothesis of independence and the alternative hypothesis of dependence are…
A model of Poissonian observation having a jump (change-point) in the intensity function is considered. Two cases are studied. The first one corresponds to the situation when the jump size converges to a non-zero limit, while in the second…
Classical change point analysis aims at (1) detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a possibly non-stationary time series and at (2) identifying regions where the mean exhibits a piecewise constant behavior. In many applications however, it…
Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…
Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that…
Usually one compares the accuracy of two competing classifiers via null hypothesis significance tests (nhst). Yet the nhst tests suffer from important shortcomings, which can be overcome by switching to Bayesian hypothesis testing. We…
We propose a simple robust hypothesis test that has the same sample complexity as that of the optimal Neyman-Pearson test up to constants, but robust to distribution perturbations under Hellinger distance. We discuss the applicability of…
Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…
In the classical literature on infinite series there are various tests to determine if a given infinite series converges, diverges, or oscillates. But unfortunately, for very many infinite series all the existing tests can fail to provide…
Consider a binary statistical hypothesis testing problem, where $n$ independent and identically distributed random variables $Z^n$ are either distributed according to the null hypothesis $P$ or the alternative hypothesis $Q$, and only $P$…
After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…
In this article, we investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian multiple testing procedures under general dependent setup, when the sample size and the number of hypotheses both tend to infinity. Specifically, we investigate strong…
Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…
Statistical dependence between hypotheses poses a significant challenge to the stability of large scale multiple hypotheses testing. Ignoring it often results in an unacceptably large spread in the false positive proportion even though the…
We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting a shift between the means of two multivariate normal distributions in the high-dimensional setting, allowing for the data dimension p to exceed the sample size n. Specifically, we…
We consider the general branching random walk under minimal assumptions, which in particular guarantee that the empirical particle distribution admits an almost sure central limit theorem. For such a process, we study the large time decay…
In this paper, the Neyman-Pearson lemma for general sublinear expectations is studied. We weaken the assumptions for sublinear expectations in [1] and give a completely new method to study this problem. Applying Mazur-Orlicz Theorem and the…
Two active hypothesis testing problems are formulated. In these problems, the agent can perform a fixed number of experiments and then decide on one of the hypotheses. The agent is also allowed to declare its experiments inconclusive if…
The null hypothesis test (NHT) is widely used for validating scientific hypotheses but is actually highly criticized. Although Bayesian tests overcome several criticisms, some limits remain. We propose a Bayesian two-interval test (2IT) in…