Related papers: Pandemic Spread in Communities via Random Graphs
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…
Let $A$ be a primitive matrix and let $\lambda$ be its Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue. We give formulas expressing the associated normalized Perron-Frobenius eigenvector as a simple functional of a multitype Galton-Watson process whose mean…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
We investigate the problem of estimating the distribution of the individual reproduction number governing the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that this random variable follows a Negative Binomial distribution, we focus on…
The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
An annealed version of the quenched mean-field model for epidemic spread is introduced and investigated analytically and assisted by numerical calculations. The interaction between individuals follows a prescription that is used to generate…
The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…
The first mitigation response to the Covid-19 pandemic was to limit person-to-person interaction as much as possible. This was implemented by the temporary closing of many workplaces and people were required to follow social distancing.…
The Newman-Watts model is given by taking a cycle graph of n vertices and then adding each possible edge $(i,j), |i-j|\neq 1 \mod n$ with probability $\rho/n$ for some $\rho>0$ constant. In this paper we add i.i.d. exponential edge weights…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…
We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold…
We study a dynamical model of epidemic spreading on complex networks in which there are explicit correlations among the node's connectivities. For the case of Markovian complex networks, showing only correlations between pairs of nodes, we…
In this paper we consider a model based on branching process theory for the proliferation and the dissemination network of T cells in the adaptive immune response. A multi-type Galton Watson branching process is assumed as the basic…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…
We consider a binary branching process structured by a stochastic trait that evolves according to a diffusion process that triggers the branching events, in the spirit of Kimmel's model of cell division with parasite infection. Based on the…
The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved…
We formulate a general SEIR epidemic model in a heterogenous population characterized by some trait in a discrete or continuous subset of a space R d. The incubation and recovery rates governing the evolution of each homogenous…
Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process…