Related papers: Foresight AND Hindsight
The use of Dynamic Epistemic Logic (DEL) in multi-agent planning has led to a widely adopted action formalism that can handle nondeterminism, partial observability and arbitrary knowledge nesting. As such expressive power comes at the cost…
Many widely used models amount to an elaborate means of making up numbers--but once a number has been produced, it tends to be taken seriously and its source (the model) is rarely examined carefully. Many widely used models have little…
We consider the dimensions of finite type of representations of a partially ordered set, i.e. such that there is only finitely many isomorphism classes of representations of this dimension. We give a criterion for a dimension to be of…
A standard goal of model evaluation and selection is to find a model that approximates the truth well while at the same time is as parsimonious as possible. In this paper we emphasize the point of view that the models under consideration…
The form and justification of inductive inference rules depend strongly on the representation of uncertainty. This paper examines one generic representation, namely, incomplete information. The notion can be formalized by presuming that the…
The purpose of this paper is to explain the interest and importance of (approximate) models and model selection in Statistics. Starting from the very elementary example of histograms we present a general notion of finite dimensional model…
Completeness and transitivity are standard rationality conditions in economics. However, under ambiguity, decision makers sometimes violate these requirements because of the difficulty of forming accurate predictions about ambiguous events.…
Decision trees are widely used for interpretable machine learning due to their clearly structured reasoning process. However, this structure belies a challenge we refer to as predictive equivalence: a given tree's decision boundary can be…
It is argued that the concept of free will, like the concept of truth in formal languages, requires a separation between an object level and a meta-level for being consistently defined. The Jamesian two-stage model, which deconstructs free…
Prototypical Learning is based on the idea that there is a point (which we call prototype) around which the embeddings of a class are clustered. It has shown promising results in scenarios with little labeled data or to design explainable…
`All models are wrong but some are useful' (George Box 1979). But, how to find those useful ones starting from an imperfect model? How to make informed data-driven decisions equipped with an imperfect model? These fundamental questions…
In a multi-modeling based approach, the system under development is described by several models that represent various perspectives and concerns. Obviously, these partial representations are less complex than the global model, but they need…
Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive,…
Conceptual models as representations of real-world systems are based on diverse techniques in various disciplines but lack a framework that provides multidisciplinary ontological understanding of real-world phenomena. Concurrently, systems…
The main question is: why and how can we ever predict based on a finite sample? The question is not answered by statistical learning theory. Here, I suggest that prediction requires belief in "predictability" of the underlying dependence,…
We present a propositional logic %which can be used to reason about the uncertainty of events, where the uncertainty is modeled by a set of probability measures assigning an interval of probability to each event. We give a sound and…
The notion of argumentation and the one of belief stand in a problematic relation to one another. On the one hand, argumentation is crucial for belief formation: as the outcome of a process of arguing, an agent might come to (justifiably)…
We consider the problem of characterizing isomorphisms of types, or, equivalently, constructive cardinality of sets, in the simultaneous presence of disjoint unions, Cartesian products, and exponentials. Mostly relying on results about…
Declarative approaches to process modeling are regarded as well suited for highly volatile environments as they provide a high degree of flexibility. However, problems in understanding and maintaining declarative business process models…
We propose a method of classifying the operation of a system into finitely many modes. Each mode has its own objectives for the system's behaviour and its own mathematical models and algorithms designed to accomplish its objectives. A…