Related papers: Foresight AND Hindsight
A two state model for opinion forming, which has proven heuristic power, is reviewed with a novel emphasis on the existence or absence of a threshold for the dynamics. Monitored by repeated small groups discussions floater agents update…
This paper presents a theory of systemic undecidability, reframing incomputability as a structural property of systems rather than a localized feature of specific functions or problems. We define a notion of causal embedding and prove a…
Any probabilistic model of a problem is based on assumptions which, if violated, invalidate the model. Users of probability based decision aids need to be alerted when cases arise that are not covered by the aid's model. Diagnosis of model…
We study the implications of model completeness of a theory for the effectiveness of presentations of models of that theory. It is immediate that for a computable model $\mathcal A$ of a computably enumerable, model complete theory, the…
Many mathematical models utilize limit processes. Continuous functions and the calculus, differential equations and topology, all are based on limits and continuity. However, when we perform measurements and computations, we can achieve…
Trust is a crucial factor affecting the adoption of machine learning (ML) models. Qualitative studies have revealed that end-users, particularly in the medical domain, need models that can express their uncertainty in decision-making…
Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We review…
Humans currently use arguments for explaining choices which are already made, or for evaluating potential choices. Each potential choice has usually pros and cons of various strengths. In spite of the usefulness of arguments in a decision…
Models often need to be constrained to a certain size for them to be considered interpretable. For example, a decision tree of depth 5 is much easier to understand than one of depth 50. Limiting model size, however, often reduces accuracy.…
We propose an abstract conceptual framework for analysing complex security systems using a new notion of modes and mode transitions. A mode is an independent component of a system with its own objectives, monitoring data, algorithms, and…
The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of…
In this paper, a model for understanding the effects of selection using systems- level computational approaches is introduced. A number of concepts and principles essential for understanding the motivation for constructing the model will be…
Calibration is a classical notion from the forecasting literature which aims to address the question: how should predicted probabilities be interpreted? In a world where we only get to observe (discrete) outcomes, how should we evaluate a…
The modeling of complex systems such as ecological or socio-economic systems can be very challenging. Although various modeling approaches exist, they are generally not compatible and mutually consistent, and empirical data often do not…
A model for a subject's beliefs about a phenomenon may exhibit symmetry, in the sense that it is invariant under certain transformations. On the other hand, such a belief model may be intended to represent that the subject believes or knows…
I consider decision-making constrained by considerations of morality, rationality, or other virtues. The decision maker (DM) has a true preference over outcomes, but feels compelled to choose among outcomes that are top-ranked by some…
Epistemic uncertainty arises in lack of complete knowledge about the state of a system. There are multiple mathematical frameworks for measuring such uncertainty quantitatively, often referred to as imprecise probability theories. Inspired…
Since its application to systems, emergence has been explained in terms of levels of observation. This approach has led to confusion, contradiction, incoherence and at times mysticism. When the idea of level is replaced by a framework of…
There is a persistent confusion about determinism and predictability. In spite of the opinions of some eminent philosophers (e.g., Popper), it is possible to understand that the two concepts are completely unrelated. In few words we can say…
An implicit ambiguity in the field of prediction-based decision-making regards the relation between the concepts of prediction and decision. Much of the literature in the field tends to blur the boundaries between the two concepts and often…