Related papers: An adjacent-swap Markov chain on coalescent trees

We consider the time dependent probability distribution of a coarse grained observable Y whose evolution is governed by a discrete time map. If the map is mixing, the time dependent one-step transition probabilities converge in the long…

Since 1997 a considerable effort has been spent to study the mixing time of switch Markov chains on the realizations of graphic degree sequences of simple graphs. Several results were proved on rapidly mixing Markov chains on unconstrained,…

We study a broad class of random labelled trees in which integer-valued labels evolve along the edges according to increments in $\{-1, 0, 1\}$. These models include e.g. branching random walks, embedded complete and incomplete binary…

The transition matrix of a Markov chain $(X_k,k\geq 0)$ on a finite or infinite rooted tree is said to be almost upper-directed if, given $X_k$, the node $X_{k+1}$ is either a descendant of $X_k$ or the parent of $X_k$. It is said to be…

Computational couplings of Markov chains provide a practical route to unbiased Monte Carlo estimation that can utilize parallel computation. However, these approaches depend crucially on chains meeting after a small number of transitions.…

The switch chain is a well-known Markov chain for sampling directed graphs with a given degree sequence. While not ergodic in general, we show that it is ergodic for regular degree sequences. We then prove that the switch chain is rapidly…

Specifying a full Bayesian model that integrates multiple data sources can be challenging. One natural approach is to specify each individual model separately and join them afterwards. This is the approach adopted in Markov melding.…

Bayesian inference for undirected graphical models is mostly restricted to the class of decomposable graphs, as they enjoy a rich set of properties making them amenable to high-dimensional problems. While parameter inference is…

We revisit the classical problem of approximating a stochastic differential equation by a discrete-time and discrete-space Markov chain. Our construction iterates Caratheodory's theorem over time to match the moments of the increments…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

We show how to map the states of an ergodic Markov chain to Euclidean space so that the squared distance between states is the expected commuting time. We find a minimax characterization of commuting times, and from this we get monotonicity…

We prove an ergodic theorem for Markov chains indexed by the Ulam-Harris-Neveu tree over large subsets with arbitrary shape under two assumptions: with high probability, two vertices in the large subset are far from each other and have…

Computational inference of dated evolutionary histories relies upon various hypotheses about RNA, DNA, and protein sequence mutation rates. Using mutation rates to infer these dated histories is referred to as molecular clock assumption.…

We study the convergence rate to stationarity for a class of exchangeable partition-valued Markov chains called cut-and-paste chains. The law governing the transitions of a cut-and-paste chain are determined by products of i.i.d. stochastic…

Many complex systems exhibit interactions that depend not only on pairwise connections, but also group structures and memory effects. To capture such effects, we develop a unified tensor framework for modeling higher-order Markov chains…

Recent work has proven the existence of extreme inbreeding in a European ancestry sample taken from the contemporary UK population \cite{nature_01}. This result brings our attention again to a math problem related to inbreeding family trees…

Suppose X and Y are two independent irreducible Markov chains on n states. We consider the intersection time, which is the first time their trajectories intersect. We show for reversible and lazy chains that the total variation mixing time…

We analyze the general biased adjacent transposition shuffle process, which is a well-studied Markov chain on the symmetric group $S_n$. In each step, an adjacent pair of elements $i$ and $j$ are chosen, and then $i$ is placed ahead of $j$…

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Phylogenetics uses alignments of molecular sequence data to learn about evolutionary trees. Substitutions in sequences are modelled through a continuous-time Markov process, characterised by an instantaneous rate matrix, which standard…