Related papers: A prognostic dynamic model applicable to infectiou…
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been ongoing for around 3 years, and has infected over 750 million people and caused over 6 million deaths worldwide at the time of writing. Throughout the pandemic, several strategies…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…
There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of…
One of the central tools to control the COVID-19 pandemics is the knowledge of its spreading dynamics. Here we develop a fractal model capable of describe this dynamics, in term of daily new cases, and provide quantitative criteria for some…
To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the world has vaccination, plasma therapy, herd immunity, and epidemiological interventions as few possible options. The COVID-19 vaccine development is underway and it may take a…
Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…
We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. Our context is an effort…
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…
The COVID-19 outbreak has stimulated the interest in the proposal of novel epidemiological models to predict the course of the epidemic so as to help planning effective control strategies. In particular, in order to properly interpret the…
Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different…
While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…