Related papers: A prognostic dynamic model applicable to infectiou…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…
We propose an epidemic model SIPHERD in which three categories of infection carriers Symptomatic, Purely Asymptomatic, and Exposed are considered with different rates of transmission of infection that are taken dependent on the lockdown and…
To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…
Understanding the effects of interventions, such as restrictions on community and large group gatherings, is critical to controlling the spread of COVID-19. Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models are traditionally used to forecast…
Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…
One of the difficulties in monitoring an ongoing pandemic is deciding on the metric that best describes its status when multiple intercorrelated measurements are available. Having a single measure, such as the effective reproduction number…
As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…
The World Health Organization (WHO) made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. To the COVID-19 outbreak, there is no vaccination and no treatment. The only way to control the COVID-19 outbreak is…
We make a retrospective review on various control measures taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 7, 2020, and evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively. The SEIR-QD…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…
This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented demands on local public health units in Ontario, Canada, one of which was the need for in-house epidemiological-modelling capabilities. To address this need, Ontario Tech University and the…
As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…
We study and predict the evolution of Covid-19 in six US states from the period May 1 through August 31 using a discrete compartment-based model and prescribe active intervention policies, like lockdowns, on the basis of minimizing a loss…
We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard…
By the end of July 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected more than seventeen million people and had spread to almost all countries worldwide. In response, many countries all over the world have used different methods to reduce the…
To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…
COVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. Till date, well tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted…