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Algorithms for learning the conditional probabilities of Bayesian networks with hidden variables typically operate within a high-dimensional search space and yield only locally optimal solutions. One way of limiting the search space and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Frank Wittig , Anthony Jameson

We consider a largely untapped potential for the improvement of traffic networks that is rooted in the inherent uncertainty of travel times. Travel times are subject to stochastic uncertainty resulting from various parameters such as…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Svenja M. Griesbach , Martin Hoefer , Max Klimm , Tim Koglin

This paper studies the problem of distributed multi-agent Bayesian optimization with both coupled black-box constraints and known affine constraints. A primal-dual distributed algorithm is proposed that achieves similar regret/violation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Wenjie Xu , Yuning Jiang , Bratislav Svetozarevic , Colin N. Jones

In Bayesian persuasion, an informed sender strategically discloses information to a receiver so as to persuade them to undertake desirable actions. Recently, a growing attention has been devoted to settings in which sender and receivers…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Francesco Bacchiocchi , Francesco Emanuele Stradi , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone

Preferential Bayesian optimization (PBO) is a variant of Bayesian optimization that observes relative preferences (e.g., pairwise comparisons) instead of direct objective values, making it especially suitable for human-in-the-loop…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Koki Iwai , Yusuke Kumagae , Yuki Koyama , Masahiro Hamasaki , Masataka Goto

A principal delegates choice to an agent whose decision depends on both beliefs and tastes. The principal can steer the delegated decision using two costly instruments: (i) an information policy that determines a Bayes--plausible…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-12 Kemal Ozbek

We introduce a model of persuasion in which a sender without any commitment power privately gathers information about an unknown state of the world and then chooses what to verifiably disclose to a receiver. The receiver does not know how…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-25 Itai Arieli , Colin Stewart

Inference after model selection has been an active research topic in the past few years, with numerous works offering different approaches to addressing the perils of the reuse of data. In particular, major progress has been made recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor , Asaf Weinstein

All biological and artificial agents must learn and make decisions given limits on their ability to process information. As such, a general theory of adaptive behavior should be able to account for the complex interactions between an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-08 Dilip Arumugam , Mark K. Ho , Noah D. Goodman , Benjamin Van Roy

The paper presents a scheme for computing lower and upper bounds on the posterior marginals in Bayesian networks with discrete variables. Its power lies in its ability to use any available scheme that bounds the probability of evidence or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-17 Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter , Emma Rollon

We study the power of price discrimination via an intermediary in bilateral trade, when there is a revenue-maximizing seller selling an item to a buyer with a private value drawn from a prior. Between the seller and the buyer, there is an…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Shao-Heng Ko , Kamesh Munagala

We revisit the distributed hypothesis testing (or hypothesis testing with communication constraints) problem from the viewpoint of privacy. Instead of observing the raw data directly, the transmitter observes a sanitized or randomized…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-06-26 Atefeh Gilani , Selma Belhadj Amor , Sadaf Salehkalaibar , Vincent Y. F. Tan

This paper studies the semi-parametric identification and estimation of a rational inattention model with Bayesian persuasion. The identification requires the observation of a cross-section of market-level outcomes. The empirical content of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-18 Moyu Liao

In today's online advertising markets, it is common for advertisers to set long-term budgets. Correspondingly, advertising platforms adopt budget control methods to ensure that advertisers' payments lie within their budgets. Most budget…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Zhaohua Chen , Mingwei Yang , Chang Wang , Jicheng Li , Zheng Cai , Yukun Ren , Zhihua Zhu , Xiaotie Deng

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stephen Bates , Michael I. Jordan , Michael Sklar , Jake A. Soloff

Finding the optimal assignment in budget-constrained auctions is a combinatorial optimization problem with many important applications, a notable example being the sale of advertisement space by search engines (in this context the problem…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-05-13 F. Altarelli , A. Braunstein , J. Realpe-Gomez , R. Zecchina

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-16 Theofanis Karaletsos

Every interaction of a living organism with its environment involves the placement of a bet. Armed with partial knowledge about a stochastic world, the organism must decide its next step or near-term strategy, an act that implicitly or…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-30 Philipp Fleig , Vijay Balasubramanian

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-02-25 Steen Hannestad , Thomas Tram